Federal Debt/Deficit

Huge secular bull market in bonds (emerging in 1981) is topping out.

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Huge secular bull market in bonds (emerging in 1981) is topping out.

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The great opportunity in potential Telecom Survivors. This new “quantitative screen” turned “Attractive” in GS model and was purchased in Unconventional portfolio only.

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Expect CPI and PPI to both edge higher in second half of year...could be negative surprise, but not something big.

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Expect CPI and PPI to both edge higher in second half of year...could be negative surprise, but not the start of something big.

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Corporate Crime Wave—Not a new era, but exaggerated by  length of recent bull market….Why and how some real reform must become reality. Also, why the Federal Deficit is likely to exceed $200 billion.

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Expect CPI and PPI to both edge higher in second half of year...could be negative surprise, but not the start of something big.

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Is this a bear market? It certainly is a bear market in integrity! Steve presents the case for both Bears and Bulls.

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Near term, bond market may continue to rally as economic reports have become more mixed (less bullish). But long term secular bull market in bonds emerging in 1981 has probably topped out.

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Expect rally from current oversold conditions, but overall, we think secular Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.

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Rally due in Q1 2002, but we think Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.

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Rally due in Q1 2002, but we think Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.

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Bond Market weakness is adjustment to end of Fed easing cycle.

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Leuthold’s New Year Predictions for 2002 and a review of last year’s predictions.

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Fiscal responsibility goes out the window in Washington. Also, The Bombastic Earnings Charade: Why are companies allowed to make up their own accounting rules?

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Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s New Year predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.

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  A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them.

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The balanced budget: politicians had to move fast because the budget looked as if it might balance itself without their help. Wage Inflation: our belief that it has been accelerating has been wrong, particularly in Q2.

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Balanced budget agreement assumes current economic expansion will run about 12 years, longer than any other in history.

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Impressive rally did not alter Negative status of Major Trend Index. S&P 500 beat 90% of sectors in April. Earnings holding up well in Q1, but margins likely to shrink as the year progresses.

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