CPI
Looking Ahead To 2005
Continued U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative, but we are getting more optimistic about the dollar.
Recent Surge In CPI/PPI Inflation Temporary, Not Sustainable
Higher oil prices and higher food prices pushed recent CPI and PPI higher. Next month’s readings will likely show less inflation with oil prices coming down some recently.
View From The North Country
This month’s “View From The North Country” presents data showing periods where interest rates (both long T-bonds and 90 day T-bills) rose and stocks also rose. It can happen!
View From The North Country
What has happened to the Stock/Bond Models? Does the CPI now understate inflation? If stock market returns average 20% per year, as some investors expect, young investors need not worry about Social Security…Fat Chance!
Inflation & Interest Rates
Favorite stock groups now “inflation and interest rate proof”?
Bond Market Summary
1998 Inflation Projections: CPI expected to end 1999 about unchanged from year end 1998 levels (year over year change of 0.0%).
Inflation Update
Wage pressure is only cloud on inflation horizon.
Inflation Update
Wage inflation looked like it was finally taking off in October, but November's data showed a different picture, as four of the nine subsets (including Total Wage inflation) moved lower.
Bond Market Summary
Even considering these deficit related problems, we have to remain cyclically bullish on T-bonds for the next few months. The bond market just has too much going for it. Most of our inflation work remains cool, but this month we present two momentum measures for the PPI and CPI that may appear ominous to some.
View from the North Country
Some very preliminary signs inflation deceleration may be slowing, and CPI is now probably understating current levels of inflation. In 1983 two versions of CPI will be reported with CPI-U substituting rental factor for mortgage rates and home prices. However, COLAs and Social Security will remain tied to the old version.
View from the North Country
55 members of Congress are double dippers, getting a government salary check and a government pension check each month. Some think it's unethical, but it's all legal. Names and numbers included. Also, the CPI may soon be understating inflation, but not because a rental equivalent will be substituted for home prices and mortgage costs in January 1983. PPI, however, is understating price declines.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
