CPI

We’re back on form after last month’s praise of government economists... questioning the value of the GDP Deflator.

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We believe that the CPI understates, not overstates inflation.

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There is a strong linkage between higher Food and Energy costs and Core CPI.

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Optimists have continuously cited low unemployment and the ever resilient U.S. consumer as two “pillars of strength” that will help keep the economy afloat. It has become considerably more difficult to make this case in recent months, as jobs and spending data have weakened to levels associated with recessions.

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Persistently high Food and Energy prices tend to drive the “Core” CPI inflation rate higher. These two subsets have now been in a rising pattern since the late nineties and cost pressures are forcing more and more manufacturers to raise prices.

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We believe that the CPI understates, not overstates inflation. There is political pressure to keep inflation low.

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CPI and PPI expected to peak in early 2008 and then decelerate. Our initial 2008 predictions are +3.5% for CPI and +4.0% for the PPI by year end...That’s the good news.

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We expect the CPI and PPI to peak in January 2008 and then decelerate some as the economy begins to slow down.

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We expect most broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year.

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We expect most broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year, including: CPI, Core CPI, PPI and GDP deflator.

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Expect economic expansion to pick up a bit after weak first quarter, but a 2008 recession is a possibility. 

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Despite what the media babbles, inflation trends are not slowing.

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Inflationary trends are not slowing. The six month annualized PPI rate of change is almost +10% and the CPI almost +5%, both above their respective twelve month rates.

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CPI inflation accelerated again in March. As we see it, the important development is that inflation has broadened out.

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CPI and PPI monthly inflation kicked up a bit with February readings and could  do so again when March results are released.

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Inflation trends are a mixed bag at present.

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Twelve month rates of change for both CPI and PPI have been trending down over the past fifteen months, and seem to be less of an immediate threat. But, the Core CPI seems to be in an uptrend.

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Inflation prospects are especially unclear. While many inflation gauges seem to be slowing, the threat of an inflation flare-up remains.

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Looking ahead, CPI twelve month rate of inflation is likely to be in the +2% area for the first half of 2007.

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Inflation expectations seem to be on the rise.

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