CPI

CPI on a twelve month basis expected to decelerate further over the next month or two. Final two months of the year, however, could be another story, with CPI twelve month inflation reaccelerating.

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CPI on a twelve month basis is expected to decelerate further over the next two months. The final 3 months of the year, however, could be another story.

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CPI on a twelve month basis still expected to decelerate over the next three months. The final 3 months of the year, however could be another story, with CPI twelve month inflation accelerating.        

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CPI still expected to decelerate over the next four months as current readings get compared to above average readings a year ago.  The final three months of the year, however, could be another story.

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Raised our 2006 CPI estimate (mid-May) to +4.5% from initial projection of +4.0% or less.

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Inflation, particularly wage inflation, continues to accelerate. Wage inflation is now at its highest level since 2001.

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PPI rate of change exceeds the CPI at present, and has been higher since late 2003. Could be a bad omen for corporate profits.

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The major inflation concern is to what degree significantly higher energy costs will be passed through, even if energy prices stabilize or decline.

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Expecting economy to slow in 2006, with possibility of recession developing late in the year. Energy prices remain a wild card.

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Major reason for lower inflation forecasts is expectation of slowing economy (recession?) in 2006.

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CPI/PPI inflation twelve month rate of change has likely peaked and is expected to decelerate over at least the next 2-3 months.

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2005 Inflation Predictions Boosted: Now project twelve month CPI to accelerate to about +5.0% by year end.

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Boosting our 2005 inflation projections based on continuing high energy prices and anticipated above average September CPI/PPI inflation readings. Also, the implications of higher inflation.

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Q. Why has your +3.8% 2005 inflation projection been so much higher than the +2.5% to +2.8% consensus?

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After a brief dip, project twelve month CPI to accelerate to about +3.8% by year end.

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We continue to be more optimistic about the dollar than most, and believe the post election U.S. dollar weakness was overdone.

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Further U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative (higher import prices), but we are more optimistic about the dollar than most.

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For now the economic expansion remains healthy, but could fade some in the second half of the year.

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We estimate +3.3% real GDP growth in 2005, after weakening in the second half of the year.

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CPI and PPI declined more than expected in December due to impact of lower energy prices.

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