Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Long-Term Capital Gains Pressure: In the last month or so several have commented that the stock market will be subjected to significant selling pressure in late summer, early fall. Inflation Watch: Things are looking better. The possibility of any significant uptick in inflation in the last half of 1983 now looks very remote. However, 1984-1985 is another matter.

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The stock market is maybe half or two-thirds of the way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. But the current cyclical bull market is no longer so healthy. Mutual fund mania continues - factoring in the May ICI statistics over the last twelve months, net cash flow into equity oriented mutual funds is now up 10.8% of assets, equaling the previous high-water marks of 1955-1957.

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In this “In Focus” feature, 103 years of common stock dividend yields are compared. Today’s prevailing yields are put in historic perspective. Then various future stock market models are constructed, employing a variety of future earnings and dividend growth rates. Considering dividend yield history, the “super bulls” target of DJIA 3000 before the end of the decade seems close to impossible.

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The popular market averages recorded little net change over the last five weeks even though the unweighted price indices have continued to move higher. We continue to believe the market is on pretty shaky ground near term.

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Buying the Worst-Managed Companies: An addendum to our feature of a few months ago. This time we look at Fortune magazine’s best-managed and worst-managed selections. Guess which have performed best in the market? Do You Know Your Banks?: Do you know all the new bank names? If you do you might win a prize in our new contest.

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All bull markets since 1896 are examined and compared with the current specimen in terms of cumulative month by month gains. In terms of dynamics, this is an exceptional market, but hardly unprecedented. Also, all the long sustained uninterrupted uptrends of the past (like those in the 1950’s) are examined. Is this another one of those? We don’t think so. The current specimen has gone too far too fast.

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The stock market is maybe half or two thirds of the way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. The cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is still healthy according to our Major Trend Index, but for the first time in nine years is no longer “undervalued.” Shorter-term, an intermediate term correction is expected almost any time.

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An Analysis of Recent Social Security “Reform” – An act of fiscal responsibility this was not. Revenues were increased, but benefits were also significantly increased as shown in this fairly detailed review. Wilson Foods and Dick the Butcher – The legal eagles at Wilson Foods are using Federal bankruptcy laws to break a contract and, in the process, carving out a new low in union-management relations.

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The stock market is about half way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. The cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is still healthy according to our Major Trend Index. However, the intermediate term correction looks like it’s finally here.

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“How to Beat the Stock Market?” In a bubbling high-tech market, a strong dose of low P/E enforcement is good for the soul. So, in mid-March, my wife and I had dinner with good friend, David Dreman. “Inflation Watch – Time for Some Caution?” Today, with most inflation measures under 4%, we are approaching what has historically been an environment of moderate inflation, perhaps even price stability.

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In Search of Excellence, a new book on outstanding corporate managements is all the rage. But, as the authors indicate, it is not an investment book. We have extensively tested the past investment results achieved investing in companies with “best-management” reputations. It is not good.

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We think the stock market, probably powered by an oil stock rebound, may run another 5%-10% before the long-anticipated correction becomes reality.

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Comments on current farm conditions, inflation measures, DJIA 1982 earnings calculations, “Whoops” bonds, California script, and Minnesota’s new oil field.

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Fearless Forecasts, our Annual feature of whimsical, but sometimes accurate prediction of coming events. Not for stuffy or squeamish readers.

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Science & Technology and Inflation Hedge (natural resource) stocks led the market in January. Near term rise in some commodity prices does not indicate high inflation returning. Longer-term measures still at comfortably low levels and most trending down. Don’t panic.

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1983 Economic and Market Predictions: Economy has bottomed. Rebound to be somewhat stronger than most expect, with earnings up 20%-25% from 1982 depressed levels. Unemployment and T-Bond rates seen at 8.5% and stock market as high as 1250. Last year’s predictions reviewed.

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All systems again “go” for stock market. Major Trend Index remains Positive by comfortable margin. Short-term looks good too, maybe 1150 before another pause.

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A critical review of this publication’s 1981-1982 work…..the good and the bad, significant and insignificant.

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The most significant development since the last issue has been the renewed massive downside pressure on the oil stocks. Is it time to finally start bottom fishing in oils?

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Some very preliminary signs inflation deceleration may be slowing, and CPI is now probably understating current levels of inflation. In 1983 two versions of CPI will be reported with CPI-U substituting rental factor for mortgage rates and home prices. However, COLAs and Social Security will remain tied to the old version.

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