Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Inside the Stock Market
Our Major Trend Index says it’s still a cyclical bull market. The market is now in final washout phase of the long complex correction dating back to late June 1983. Expect to see lows momentarily, followed by powerful upswing carrying to new market highs by summer.
Reducing Equity Risk While Retaining 50%+ Upside Potential
Does it make sense to buy the traditional “defensive” stocks in the later stages of a bull market? If upside potential is viewed as only 20%-25%, it may not make much sense at all. However, we think risk can be reduced without giving up much potential reward.
Fearless Forecasts 1984
Frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy that come remarkably close to reality. First a review of some old foolish fantasy forecasts that came true, or close to being true in the last year. Then, as is our annual tradition, we once again put our forecasting reputation on the line with a new set of prognostications. Not for the more serious readers.
View from the North Country
It’s now 1984 and thermal pollution time – our annual economic and market outlook. Actually, this (unlike our New Year’s Day Brunch) is a relatively harmless tradition. It is only harmful should investors take it as seriously as do some of the prognosticators.
A Look in the Rear-View Mirror
A little self-examination is always good for the soul, so each New Year we look back over the preceding year or so, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations which appeared in this publication. Where were we right and where were we wrong?
Inside the Stock Market
We think the cyclical bull market is still on track even though our Major Trend Index did drift down into Neutral territory in the last two weeks of December. An Interim Update concerning this will be sent out January 9 when the first calculation of the new year is made. We suspect the Index has moved back up into Positive territory this first week of 1984.
View from the North Country
The Bond Market – 25 Years Ago: In recent years investors have been conditioned to double digit long-term interest rates, and more than a few think it will always be that way. Memories on Wall Street are notoriously short…..Equity Structure Update: Quite a few changes have been made in recent months. This feature details the current conceptual structure.
Inside the Stock Market
The cyclical bull market, exploding over a year ago looks healthy, but we are not sure the 1983 corrective phase is over. Our intermediate term timing work does not want to turn positive. On a secular basis, the stock market is probably about two-thirds of the way through the move beginning in 1974.
Inside the Stock Market
The cyclical bull market, exploding over a year ago, looks healthy. The 4-5 month corrective phase may be over. The excesses have been worked off and the next up-leg is due momentarily. On a secular basis, the stock market is probably about two-thirds of the way through the move beginning in 1974.
View from the North Country
Big equity structure changes in the last 30 days, one of the most dramatic shifts made in 12 years. Oil Patch holdings reduced, new position in Ethical Drugs and “new” Let’s Get Competitive thesis (improving manufacturing and industrial productivity). Other small sector shifts not very significant.
Inside the Stock Market
Short-term, an October decline may be in order, but nothing serious. Most excesses have been worked off in the third quarter. The cyclical bull market, exploding over a year ago, is looking much healthier.
View from the North Country
A preview of this issue’s “In Focus” feature on the relative attractiveness of “Zero” Treasury securities. Also, an Inflation Watch update: The caution flag is still up, but our monitoring tools are in no worse shape than a month ago. Actually, a few are just a shade less ominous.
Inside the Stock Market
Short-term, the DJIA is charging but a lot of market troops are hanging back. We are not so sure the correction is over. However, the cyclical bull market, exploding over a year ago, is starting to look healthier.
View from the North Country
Inflation Watch - Will inflation accelerate significantly in the next 12 months? Some indicators are again looking more ominous. Gold for Pension Funds? We have been long-time believers in individuals holding gold as a form of insurance protection against possible future hyperinflation. Why not for pension funds, too?
Inside the Stock Market
The current cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is no longer so healthy. The Major Trend Index is still positive but deteriorating. The expected intermediate correction is upon us and could be greater than most now think. The duration could be as long as 2 months.
Inside the Stock Market
The stock market is maybe half or two-thirds of the way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. But the current cyclical bull market is no longer so healthy. Mutual fund mania continues - factoring in the May ICI statistics over the last twelve months, net cash flow into equity oriented mutual funds is now up 10.8% of assets, equaling the previous high-water marks of 1955-1957.
Common Stock Dividend Yields and DJIA 3000
In this “In Focus” feature, 103 years of common stock dividend yields are compared. Today’s prevailing yields are put in historic perspective. Then various future stock market models are constructed, employing a variety of future earnings and dividend growth rates. Considering dividend yield history, the “super bulls” target of DJIA 3000 before the end of the decade seems close to impossible.
View from the North Country
Long-Term Capital Gains Pressure: In the last month or so several have commented that the stock market will be subjected to significant selling pressure in late summer, early fall. Inflation Watch: Things are looking better. The possibility of any significant uptick in inflation in the last half of 1983 now looks very remote. However, 1984-1985 is another matter.
Inside the Stock Market
The popular market averages recorded little net change over the last five weeks even though the unweighted price indices have continued to move higher. We continue to believe the market is on pretty shaky ground near term.
View from the North Country
Buying the Worst-Managed Companies: An addendum to our feature of a few months ago. This time we look at Fortune magazine’s best-managed and worst-managed selections. Guess which have performed best in the market? Do You Know Your Banks?: Do you know all the new bank names? If you do you might win a prize in our new contest.
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