Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Self-examination is always good for the soul, so each year, time is taken to look back over the preceding year or so, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing in this publication. Including where we were right....and where we were wrong.

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Each year, along about February, this publication makes a series of “Fearless Forecasts,” frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy that sometimes come remarkably close to reality.

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Even after the excitement of early January, it still looks like a major cyclical bull market top is in progress.

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Current estimates are that only about 30% of the professional managers beat the S&P 500 this year, with its 18.4% total return. The DJIA produced a total return gain of 26.9%.... I wonder how many beat that?

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In this business, it is often best to conveniently forget what was said in the past. But unfortunately, when the opinions are written down and published, this does not always work. At any rate, this publication has a sometimes embarrassing commitment to full disclosure. So again, we will include our old (1986) crystal ball gazing right along with this year’s predictions.

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Happy Holidays……Japan International Banking……Remember, patience is a virtue if you want to buy a farm.

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The Major Trend Index deteriorated some and remains negative, as it has since mid-June. Major cyclical bull market top in progress. Shorter term work (Early Warning Index) rendered a “sell” signal on Nov. 21, after giving a “buy” signal on Sept. 15. The Bears may have Christmas.

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We may have to wait for a while to see the next major cyclical surge in the secular bull market born in 1974, but when it gets underway we think the Technology sector will probably lead.

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We continue to believe the Japanese Oil Patch invasion will develop and the sector continues to look oversold and cheap, with most institutions significantly underweighted. Larry Jeddeloh spent part of November on the west coast, combining a research trip with some client visits. Here are his observations.

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Today, many are concerned about the potential negative impact of deflation and the stock market. Our work demonstrates that moderate deflation has typically not been a hostile stock market environment. However, deep deflation (5%-11%) has historically been a bad time for stocks.

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Update on the coming Japanese Oil Patch invasion: We are now even more convinced, it is only a matter of time.…ARFF (Angry Revengeful Frequent Flyers) – You too can be a member!

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The Major Trend Index improved slightly but remains negative, as it has since mid June. The October rally was no surprise and could carry farther, momentarily making new highs in DJIA and S&P 500 (but not broader measures). A major cyclical bull market top in progress. Watch out. View rally as selling opportunity.

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Here again are some of the client queries we have had over the last month or so.

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In September, $3 billion was switched from money market funds to equity mutual funds and $5 billion was switched out. Over 50 investment services now make mutual fund and market timing recommendations. Herein we track the dramatic increase in fund switching and comment on the implications.

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You are undoubtedly sick of reading about program trading, but this “In Focus” feature may be helpful. Portfolio Insurance, Index Fund Arbitrage and Interest Enhancement Programs are now all-important stock market factors, at least at times. We also offer one controversial but probable restriction that may well be imposed on the program gang.

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You all have experienced the frustrations of investment committee meetings. Read how Rosenberg Capital Management approaches group decision making. It Ain't Like the Good Old Days... U.S. dominance in the worldwide economic scene has greatly diminished. Aussie update: buy bonds and see the movie.

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The Major Trend Index improved somewhat in September but remains in negative territory. The strong September down move was no surprise, it appears that a major cyclical market top is in progress. Portfolio “Insurance” played a significant role in the September decline and it could play the reverse roll in a future market rally.

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For two months, cyclical stocks have been turning in some very strong relative performance while growth stocks have been fading. This month, we take a close look at this surprising shift. At this point, we still are not at all sure it is for real.

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Herein, we examine the new surge of indexing on the part of pension funds, explaining why we think it may be just the wrong time to be abandoning active investment management. While ultimately most equity managers can be expected to underperform the averages, the timing of the current rush to indexing may be all wrong. Shades of the late 1970’s!

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