Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Here again are some of the client queries we have had over the last month.

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With the market in a growth stock atmosphere, many don’t think dividends are important, but some of us do.

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The Case for Australian Government Bonds: On a relative basis, these bonds look better to us today than in August of 1985. The Real Estate Game: The real estate glut has now spread across almost all of the nation. Still, a number of pension funds and insurance companies continue to put up more buildings. Does this really make investment sense?

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Some of you liked this last month so we will do it again, but I will answer no more questions concerning Evel Knutson.

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This may put today’s stock market in better perspective. Quarterly P/E’s based on normalized earnings are presented over a 57-year period, broken down by deciles and also presented in graphic form.

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Earnings estimates for the market as a whole are coming down, but not nearly far enough. Clearly the first quarter will be below expectations.

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Our second Interim Memo of 1986 was sent out in the third week in March saying, “EARLY WARNING WORK SAYS, ‘WATCH OUT!’” Nothing has occurred in the last two weeks to moderate that warning.

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How does the market stand today in terms of historical ranges? Overall, it is above the historical medians for these intrinsic value measures, but not yet extremely overvalued. Clearly though, for the first time in twelve years, the stock market is no longer cheap.

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Like any insurance, there is a premium, but this insurance can be taken out for only a limited period, only when the storm warnings are flying. This section attempts to provide a simple explanation as to what this index put insurance stuff is all about.

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Cold Winter in the Farm Belt: Farmland may be closer than we thought to bottoming out…it Just might be buying time. The IRA Temptation: Now that many IRA accounts have grown to meaningful size they are in increasing danger of being mismanaged.

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A few “experts” who haven’t learned about percentages yet called the February surge “unprecedented,” the largest monthly move in history. Well it was hardly that, but it was a very strong market.

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Let’s get some recent client questions out of the way, questions I suspect other readers might also have.

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The stock market held its own in January.

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In mid December an Interim Memo was sent advising clients of a negative change in our Early Warning Index, an indication that an intermediate top was forming. It has been about four weeks since that alert and the work has continued negative.

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Another New Year has arrived. Again tradition must be honored. Blacked-eyed peas have been consumed.

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It is beginning to look like some rigid spending controls may be put in place this year. The Senate seems determined to stand its ground, using the debt ceiling as a club to bring the House along. If this takes place it could bring a blow off in both markets. If it does not, watch out!

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Quality Growth stocks led the market in November and are now also outperforming the market year to date. Now that we have so many value players, is the stage set for an extended period of big growth stock leadership?

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The December Bottom Fishing Expedition…Where the Speculative Action Is…Revising Our Troubles Away…Annual Dow Jones Tirade…It’s Not Getting Any Better in Rural America

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The current advance was an unusually slow starter, but November really cooked. The DJIA was up 7%, the S&P 500 up 6.5% with the Value Line up about the same, evidence that the market is broadening out.

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