Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
View from the North Country
Earnings estimates for the market as a whole are coming down, but not nearly far enough. Clearly the first quarter will be below expectations.
Inside the Stock Market
Our second Interim Memo of 1986 was sent out in the third week in March saying, “EARLY WARNING WORK SAYS, ‘WATCH OUT!’” Nothing has occurred in the last two weeks to moderate that warning.
Intrinsic Value Comparisons
How does the market stand today in terms of historical ranges? Overall, it is above the historical medians for these intrinsic value measures, but not yet extremely overvalued. Clearly though, for the first time in twelve years, the stock market is no longer cheap.
Taking Out Term Insurance on a Stock Portfolio
Like any insurance, there is a premium, but this insurance can be taken out for only a limited period, only when the storm warnings are flying. This section attempts to provide a simple explanation as to what this index put insurance stuff is all about.
View from the North Country
Cold Winter in the Farm Belt: Farmland may be closer than we thought to bottoming out…it Just might be buying time. The IRA Temptation: Now that many IRA accounts have grown to meaningful size they are in increasing danger of being mismanaged.
Inside the Stock Market
A few “experts” who haven’t learned about percentages yet called the February surge “unprecedented,” the largest monthly move in history. Well it was hardly that, but it was a very strong market.
Client Questions
Let’s get some recent client questions out of the way, questions I suspect other readers might also have.
Winners and Losers
The stock market held its own in January.
Intermediate Top?
In mid December an Interim Memo was sent advising clients of a negative change in our Early Warning Index, an indication that an intermediate top was forming. It has been about four weeks since that alert and the work has continued negative.
View From The North Country
Another New Year has arrived. Again tradition must be honored. Blacked-eyed peas have been consumed.
The Fall 1985 Advance: An Unusual Profile
It is beginning to look like some rigid spending controls may be put in place this year. The Senate seems determined to stand its ground, using the debt ceiling as a club to bring the House along. If this takes place it could bring a blow off in both markets. If it does not, watch out!
Is It Nifty Fifty Time?
Quality Growth stocks led the market in November and are now also outperforming the market year to date. Now that we have so many value players, is the stage set for an extended period of big growth stock leadership?
View from the North Country
The December Bottom Fishing Expedition…Where the Speculative Action Is…Revising Our Troubles Away…Annual Dow Jones Tirade…It’s Not Getting Any Better in Rural America
Inside the Stock Market
The current advance was an unusually slow starter, but November really cooked. The DJIA was up 7%, the S&P 500 up 6.5% with the Value Line up about the same, evidence that the market is broadening out.
View from the North Country
The aging U.S. bull market can’t expect to get much help from investors east of New York.
Inside the Stock Market
Our Major Trend Index is deteriorating. Most disturbing has been the continued deterioration in this work over the last few weeks as the overall market has seemingly improved. This is not typical.
Really Understanding “Undervalued” Investing
Are you a value investor? Or are you a sub-value investor? “In Focus” this month deals with the different approaches to being an “undervalued investor” - both past and present. Today’s risks and rewards of being an undervalued investor are explored.
View from the North Country
After years of historical research and endless plotting of productivity trends, our constant vigilance and ceaseless monitoring of vital economic and industrial currents has revealed an amazing correlation. Herein Mr. Leuthold offers his sage wisdom and several solutions to domestic sagging productivity.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index is still positive but giving ground rapidly, and our Early Warning work still indicates a 7%-10% correction should begin soon. Perhaps after an early October rally. Longer-term we remain convinced by a still positive trend. Short to intermediate term we continue cautious and defensive.
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May 2026 Issue
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