Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Several years ago, this publication raised a number of questions concerning the validity of the then trendy concept of the “financial department store”. Today, some of these grand synergies seem to be coming apart. Did it all ever make much sense? And where have all the real stockbrokers gone?

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Money: The Report Card of Life…An Interesting New Market Index from Frank Russell and Company…Fearless Forecast - And You Thought We Were Kiddin’

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Our Major Trend Index, after remaining neutral for all of February, shifted into negative territory with the March 2 calculation. Immediate defensive action is being taken in our two asset allocation models.

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Each year, along about February, this publication makes a series of “Fearless Forecasts,” frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy that sometimes come remarkably close to reality.

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A raging stock market, two Interim Memos in a single month, the Major Trend Index jumping up and down like a short-term trading tool, January was quite a month around here.

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In January, our Major Trend Index, employed to assess the overall health of the stock market, has jumped around like some short-term oscillator.

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Self-examination is always good for the soul, so each year, time is taken to look back over the preceding year or so, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing in this publication. Including where we were right....and where we were wrong.

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Even after the excitement of early January, it still looks like a major cyclical bull market top is in progress.

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Current estimates are that only about 30% of the professional managers beat the S&P 500 this year, with its 18.4% total return. The DJIA produced a total return gain of 26.9%.... I wonder how many beat that?

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In this business, it is often best to conveniently forget what was said in the past. But unfortunately, when the opinions are written down and published, this does not always work. At any rate, this publication has a sometimes embarrassing commitment to full disclosure. So again, we will include our old (1986) crystal ball gazing right along with this year’s predictions.

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Today, many are concerned about the potential negative impact of deflation and the stock market. Our work demonstrates that moderate deflation has typically not been a hostile stock market environment. However, deep deflation (5%-11%) has historically been a bad time for stocks.

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Happy Holidays……Japan International Banking……Remember, patience is a virtue if you want to buy a farm.

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The Major Trend Index deteriorated some and remains negative, as it has since mid-June. Major cyclical bull market top in progress. Shorter term work (Early Warning Index) rendered a “sell” signal on Nov. 21, after giving a “buy” signal on Sept. 15. The Bears may have Christmas.

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We may have to wait for a while to see the next major cyclical surge in the secular bull market born in 1974, but when it gets underway we think the Technology sector will probably lead.

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We continue to believe the Japanese Oil Patch invasion will develop and the sector continues to look oversold and cheap, with most institutions significantly underweighted. Larry Jeddeloh spent part of November on the west coast, combining a research trip with some client visits. Here are his observations.

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You are undoubtedly sick of reading about program trading, but this “In Focus” feature may be helpful. Portfolio Insurance, Index Fund Arbitrage and Interest Enhancement Programs are now all-important stock market factors, at least at times. We also offer one controversial but probable restriction that may well be imposed on the program gang.

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Update on the coming Japanese Oil Patch invasion: We are now even more convinced, it is only a matter of time.…ARFF (Angry Revengeful Frequent Flyers) – You too can be a member!

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The Major Trend Index improved slightly but remains negative, as it has since mid June. The October rally was no surprise and could carry farther, momentarily making new highs in DJIA and S&P 500 (but not broader measures). A major cyclical bull market top in progress. Watch out. View rally as selling opportunity.

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Here again are some of the client queries we have had over the last month or so.

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