Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

It appears that a transition to growth leadership is already underway in the small caps segment of the market.

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September’s outflow a record dollar-wise, but only represents 0.7% of total equity fund assets. This is not indicative of a panic by Main Street investors.

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Early in June, it appeared that big block selling was on the decline. But in the three months since, heavy selling has resumed.

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Art Cashin’s Intuitive Observations regarding the altered ambiance in New York. September 19th Conference Call with Steve Leuthold and Charley Maxwell summarized.

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In the context of Supply/Demand considerations, convertible offerings represent a potential increase for equity supply down the road.

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Unlike most past market crises, a post-crisis rally did not immediately follow the September 11th Attack. October Expectations: The passage of time is beginning to moderate Wall Street’s debilitating pain. I think the stock market rebound rally could be about to get underway in earnest.

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Market uncertainty often leads to volatile markets. The terrorist attacks on September 11th left a great deal of uncertainty and this was reflected by extremely high levels of volatility in September.

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Early in June, it appeared that big block selling was on the decline. But in July and August, selling has resumed at a furious pace.

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Charley Maxwell’s “Nearing The Top Of The Hubbert Curve” from August is must reading. Decimal Trading in sub-pennies? Read what Barry Small, Weeden’s CEO, has to say about this. Also, what’s so bad about the lottery?

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A decrease in occurrences of 2% days for the S&P 500 this year. Of the 169 trading days so far this year, only 17 have been moves in excess of 2% (10% of the time). There were no 2% moves in August.

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What I Worry About...The possibility of this being a secular, not a cyclical bear market. Four decades in the investment business have taught me to respect the message of the market itself.

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Continuing to evaluate the Leuthold Index methodology.

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Earnings seem to be dependent on who the source is. S&P has taken a tougher line, excluding expenses that it considers part of “normal” operations.

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Examining some of the impacts that decimalization and the inclusion of financial derivatives may have on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line & ARMs Index.

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YTD, $55 billion net inflow now running 73% behind last year’s $201 billion for the same period.

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Several clients called, expressing an interest in our recently constructed “Internet Survivors?” theme. This is now being presented monthly in Leuthold’s Groups ~ Equity Strategies (the “Blue Book”).

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A comparison of stock market net new equity supply with and without Convertibles.

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Selling volume steps up in July.

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Full Disclosure (Reg FD), Investment Banking conflicts (hardly a recent development) and the Nikkei and DJIA: Will they cross this year?

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The NASDAQ volatility continues to slow but the S&P 500 was surprisingly volatile in July.

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