Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Mid-year update how an investor would have done if they had been fortunate enough to invest in the 20 best performing industry groups (and visa versa).

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $14 billion is estimated for June. The bear market which began roughly 15 months ago has caused investors to become much more cautious toward equities this year, as evidenced by the depressed YTD net inflow levels going into U.S. focus equity funds.

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The European view of the world, by guest “View” editor, Jim Bianco.

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In June, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 volatility tapered off considerably.

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Leadership Expectations: Small and Mid Caps (not Large Caps); Energy Rebound; Biotech and Broad Health Care; some Technology subsets. How long for the NASDAQ to recover to previous highs? Assuming an 11% annual growth rate, the “NAZ” will not recoup until September 2009.

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Early in June, it appeared that big block selling was on the decline. But in recent weeks it appears that heavy selling has resumed once again.

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The NBER (U.S. “recession judge”) often fails to label recessions until after they are over. Sector Earnings in 2001: Estimate operating earnings for the cap weighted measures will be down 15%, maybe 20%. Expect the economy will start to stabilize by year-end, and improve in early 2002.

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Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.

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Our work indicates Small and Mid Cap growth stock action is heating up. It is entirely possible that a transition to Small and Mid Cap growth leadership is already in the works.

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Managing Your Mother Lode…Your Serious Money. Ten rules written for a soon to be published book, The Book Of Investing Rules, which contains an anthology of rules from well-known investors and financial professionals.

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Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.

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Statistically the summer rally is mostly fiction, historically producing average or slightly below average stock market performance….but don’t plan a three month vacation yet!

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Value may continue to outperform Growth for the balance of the year, but by a narrower margin.

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $15 billion is estimated for May, which is somewhat less than the $17.5 billion net inflow in April, but somewhat more than $13.2 billion net inflow last May.

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Remains high, but there are some signs of slowing.

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The latest 10-week reading fell 16% from the previous week, but the average remains above historical selling extremes.

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $15 billion is estimated for April. This reverses the record level $15.7 billion monthly outflow in March.

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Despite stock price corrections in the last year, significant net selling continues among the “smart money”.

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I am positive about today’s stock market, but there are some considerations that could cause my optimism to be premature. A bubble/bust comparison between the great gold and silver bubble of 1979-1980 versus the 1998-present Internet sector. Not all single digit stocks should be shunned.

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Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.

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