Chart Of The Week

While a raft of key market measures joined the S&P 500 at its latest cyclical high on November 25th, there’s at least one we’d prefer not to see on that list. Last Friday marked the first time in almost three years that the S&P 500 and the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield closed at simultaneous 52-week highs. This has been a rare event since 1981, mainly because the path of bond yields has been relentlessly down over that time.

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Last week we overlooked a key milestone among the daily parade of new stock market highs: The Stock/Bond Total Return Ratio finally exceeded its cyclical high from the summer of 2007. Since July 13, 2007, the S&P 500 has generated a cumulative total return of +73.5%, just ahead of the U.S. 10-Year  Treasury Bond total return of +70.0%. These work out to annualized returns of around 6.0%.

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It’s not only the electorate that’s polarized in the wake of last week’s presidential vote: Internal disparities within the stock market over the last several days have been some of the most extreme we’ve ever observed. For example, on Monday, November 14th, NYSE Daily 52-Week New Highs and Lows both exceeded 10% of Issues Traded. There’s no day that’s been even remotely comparable in almost 75 years of NYSE history.

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The S&P 500 Financials’ four-day, 11% rally has carried the sector to a new bull market high and the best closing level since May 6, 2008. The new high eliminates one of the long-term negative divergences from the Red Flag Indicator discussed periodically in the Green Book. Another longtime “Red Flag,” the Dow Jones 65 Composite, closed yesterday only fractionally below its December 29, 2014, all-time high. This is good action.

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It’s a throwaway line to say the current bull market is the “most hated in history,” but consider that this hatred in and of itself has led to probably the most dangerous extremity in the stock market today.

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We’ve annoyed a few media outlets by admitting to having no clue as to which of the presidential candidates would be “better” for the stock market.

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Early in the third quarter earnings season, S&P 500 companies are providing a glimmer of hope that the long earnings recession may be ending. 

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Fed tapering of its QE3 asset purchase program ended two years ago this month, yet we don’t believe this episode has received appropriate recognition for the role it’s played in the relatively flat stock market environment that’s followed the onset of tapering in January 2014.

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