Inflation
Market Interrelationships: “Unlearning” What We Thought We Knew
Doug Ramsey examines several once very reliable relationships between stocks, bonds, inflation, and commodities.
Inflation Pressures Continuing To Heat Up...Boosted Year End Projections
CPI rose 0.5% in May (before seasonal adjustments), down from April’s +0.6% monthly increase.
Despite Falling Commodity Prices, Inflation Still Expected To Accelerate In 2011
Latest PPI month/month increase was +1.2%, however the latest report is a measure of inflation from mid March through mid April and does not include the impact of the plunge in commodity prices.
Accelerating Inflation And Stock Returns
Periods of accelerating inflation generally lead to lagging stock market performance.
Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident
All three PPI measures have their six month rates of change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.
Inflation & Economic Slack?
U.S. capacity utilization rate is more than four percentage points below the magic 82% threshold, yet factory pricing pressures are already through the roof.
The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is This Cheap Money Era Ending?
Long term interest rates could continue rising, as inflation expectations increase and investors demand higher yields.
Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident
All three PPI measures have their 6 month rates of change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.
The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is This Cheap Money Era Ending?
Bond bubble deflating, as investors demand higher yields to compensate for rising inflation and mountain of debt.
Look Out For Rising Inflation This Year
Given global economic recovery, and Fed action meant to stimulate the U.S. economy, we expect that inflation fires will heat up significantly in 2011.
The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is The Cheap Money Era Ending?
The bond bubble is deflating, as investors demand higher yields to compensate for expected rising inflation and the U.S. mountain of debt.
Inflation Acceleration In 2011
By keeping interest rates at extreme lows and printing money, the Fed is trying to reflate, convincing consumers to spend, not save and investors to buy riskier assets.
A “Late-Cycle” Economy?
Economic growth is re-accelerating, but that growth is coming at a cost…price pressures are building significantly. Manufacturing prices are up along with commodity prices.
The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is The Cheap Money Era Ending?
We raised most of our twelve month yield targets this month, based on higher inflation expectations and U.S. debt concerns. Extremely low yields at the short end of the curve are the result of a stimulative Fed policy. Rising yields at the long end of the curve reflect rising inflation expectations.
Inflation Acceleration In 2011
Commodities are on fire, and it’s not just because of the weaker dollar. Commodity prices are signaling significant pass-through inflation pressures building.
Is The Bond Bubble Beginning To Deflate?
The bond bubble could be deflating, as investors demand higher yields to compensate for expected rising inflation and the U.S. mountain of debt.
Inflation Acceleration In 2011
We see the perceived deflation threat developing into commodity-based inflationary fears.
Is The Bond Bubble Beginning To Deflate?
Bond bubble continues to inflate, much like money pouring into tech stocks at the height of the internet bubble.
Inflation Acceleration Likely In 2011
Commodity Diffusion Index pointing toward higher inflation.
Commodity Diffusion Index Signaling Inflation Pressures Building
Commodity Diffusion Index pointing toward higher inflation. While weak dollar has helped push commodity prices higher, a Diffusion Index converted to a strong currency like the Swiss Franc also is at very high inflationary levels.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
