Inflation

Increasingly, stock and bond markets moving in opposite directions. There may be some reasons why this is happening now.

• Read more

Among the industrial nations, U.S. bond market offers highest yields, a reversal from earlier in the decade...A return to “normalcy” implies falling US bond yields.

• Read more

Bond risk still considered well below potential equity market risk...longer term, bond potential returns at least equal to potential equity returns.

• Read more

The balanced budget: politicians had to move fast because the budget looked as if it might balance itself without their help. Wage Inflation: our belief that it has been accelerating has been wrong, particularly in Q2.

• Read more

How long can the Goldilocks’ economy keep going? The current economic expansion (at 25 quarters) is long in the tooth by historical standards. Inflation outlook improved. Shortage of treasury bonds to become a reality?

• Read more

Fed may tighten later in the year to slow down economy. Inflation cool, but wage pressures a worry. U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields.

• Read more

Current government wage inflation statistics don’t jibe with today’s real world. Future releases will show a significant jump.

• Read more

Bond market looks attractive on 6-12 month basis. Economic expansion long in the tooth, but still surprisingly strong...Fed may tighten next time to slow down economy. Inflation cool, but wage pressures a worry.

• Read more

Economic expansion long in the tooth...Fed working to slow down the economy...Inflation cool...U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields...strong dollar should continue to stimulate foreign bond buying.

• Read more

Economic expansion long in the tooth...Fed working to slow down the economy...Inflation cool...U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields...strong dollar should continue to stimulate foreign bond buying.

• Read more

Bond rally should be rekindled by mid-year. U.S. yields remain relatively high compared to foreign yields. Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months.

• Read more

Bond rally has further to go in 1997 (6% or lower) if nervous equity investors seek safer havens, economy slows, and foreign appetite for U.S. Fixed Income remains. U.S. yields remain relatively high.

• Read more

Bonds outperformed stocks over past two months. Most investors not well positioned to take advantage of an extended period of bond’s performance superiority. As inflation threat recedes and economy slows, bonds should continue to outperform.

• Read more

Bonds (including zeros) expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months. Economy should slow by year end (recession in 1997?). Inflation should remain under control.

• Read more

Bonds (including zeros) expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow by year end, inflation should remain under control, corporate earnings momentum expected to gradually fade.

• Read more

Bonds rallied in early August on tepid employment and inflation reports, lower deficit news, and (surprise) welfare legislation. This bond market rally looks like it could get legs.

• Read more

Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow, inflation should remain under control, and corporate earnings momentum should gradually fade.

• Read more

Leuthold Group’s Commodity Diffusion Index sell signal now looks like a false alarm. The 1996 budget deficit gap is closing at a faster rate than even Clinton’s administration expected. Have Republicans misread what the majority of Americans want from their political leaders?

• Read more

Bond market decline slowed in May. But positive economy news, potential Fed tightening (not likely near-term), and labor inflation still disturb bond market investors.

• Read more

Bond market retreated in April and early May as Q1 GDP came in well ahead of estimates, raising expectations that the Fed will tighten rather than ease. Longer term, yields could move toward 5%, if confidence in U.S. dollar is rebuilt via fiscal reform.

• Read more