Inflation

I am positive about today’s stock market, but there are some considerations that could cause my optimism to be premature. A bubble/bust comparison between the great gold and silver bubble of 1979-1980 versus the 1998-present Internet sector. Not all single digit stocks should be shunned.

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Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect a few more energy related flare ups.

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Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect a few more energy related flare ups.

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Stock selection in a recession is a different ball game! A look at some of the rules and the traps when investing during a recession. The Bullish Message Of Breadth: Demonstration of how divergences between the S&P 500 and the A/D Lines have denoted market tops and market strength.

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Bonds still performing better than stocks in 2001, especially Junk Bonds. Commodity Diffusion Index declined sharply to 42%. Historically this is a significant positive for stocks and bonds.

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Our Aggressive Stance On Equity Exposure: Fed cuts, money supply expansion, tax cut prospects, fund inflow, and market internals.….Not all worries have gone away, however. This bear market has not followed what can be thought of as a traditional course.

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Strong mutual fund inflows in January helped propel High Yield bond returns up 7% for the month. Yield spreads narrowed significantly relative to Quality Corporates but remain very attractive.

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Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s New Year predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.

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U.S economy weakening faster than expected: Global economy also slowing. Increasing odds of a hard landing in 2001.

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Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect some energy related flair-ups.

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U.S. economy losing momentum, global economy slowing more…..Increasing odds of recession in 2001, as banks tighten credit, energy costs remain high, and technology falters.

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Leuthold’s current point of view and outlook regarding  the Economy, Interest Rates, Inflation, and Earnings.

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U.S. economy still has considerable momentum, but see signs of a slowdown ahead...Increasing odds of a recession in 2001, as banks tighten credit, energy costs remain high, and technology stocks falter.

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The U.S. economy still has considerable momentum, but there are now more signs of a slowdown ahead. Global economy is slowing down even more.

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Economy still has considerable momentum, but there are signs of a slowdown in the second half. Still expect further Fed tightening. Expect inflation rates of change to soon peak, then cool off in Q4.

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Per Ray DeVoe, pay increases for the service sector workers are running at a 7%-8% annual rate of increase, compare this to the BLS calculation of +3.5% for this same sector. Steve and Sharon ride the rails through the Scotland highlands.

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· Still expect one more rate hike due to rekindling of stock market enthusiasm, prospects of accelerating inflation, and reported wage inflation numbers understated.

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Despite weaker economic news, still expect Fed to bump rates up at least once more.

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Further Fed tightening to come…..Next few month inflation news likely to be scary.

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What has happened to the Stock/Bond Models? Does the CPI now understate inflation? If stock market returns average 20% per year, as some investors expect, young investors need not worry about Social Security…Fat Chance!

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