Inflation

Steve's Half Time Report: A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2004.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($458 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($507 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

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Kate Welling Interviews Steve Leuthold: The Leuthold Group’s commonsensical adherence to investment disciplines, thoughts on rising inflation, attractive investment opportunities, Iraq, the reliability of U.S. government calculated statistics and estimates, and an abundance of other topics along with engaging banter.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($483 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

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Don’t get drawn into the TIPs trap. Lack of attractive bond opportunities and prospects for higher inflation may draw investors to Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds. However, there is still risk of significantly higher interest rates, and the fact the inflation factor is tied to an unreliable CPI.

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Falling dollar in recent years has helped drive commodity prices higher. See “Of Special Interest” for a discussion of our Euro Adjusted Commodity Diffusion Index. It is not as inflationary as the Traditional Commodity Diffusion Index, which is now at levels not seen since the late 1970s.

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The spread between Long Quality Corporates and twenty year Treasury bonds is back down to a normal level, as the Treasury shortage elimination-thesis has fallen apart due to rising budget deficits.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004 (6% in the first half, 4% in the second half). But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($475 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

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Fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($374 billion in 2003) is a significant problem for bonds. Project 2004 budget deficit will expand to $535 billion.

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This month’s “Of Special Interest” presents a critical review of what we thought was the best of The Leuthold Group’s work in 2003 and what was the worst.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit is a significant problem for bonds.

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Inflation may prove to be a big surprise in 2004. This month’s “Of Special Interest” highlights several of the monitors we are watching regarding inflation.

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What’s in store for 2004? See “View From The North Country” for Steve Leuthold’s predictions. Targeting mid year stock market peak of 1250 for S&P 500 and 2400 for NASDAQ. Also makes prognostications on Interest Rates, Inflation, the Dollar, Fed Budget Deficit, and more.

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Leuthold’s thoughts about a potential near-term bull market correction, the current budget deficit, and observations on the political front.

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Economy picking up steam in second half. Early Q3 GDP estimate much better than expected.

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Economy picking up steam in second half. Revised Q2 GDP better than expected.

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Consensus view (2% inflation rate by year end), is underestimating inflation prospects. We forecast 12 month CPI rising to +3.0 to +3.5% by year end. If we are correct, inflation is not fully incorporated into current bond prices.

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GDP growth of +4.0% projected for 2003. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit is a significant problem for bonds.

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High Yield bonds rated marginally attractive after continued spread narrowing.

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