Inflation

Further U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative (higher import prices), but we are more optimistic about the dollar than most.

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Today, the yield curve has flattened but has not yet inverted. The economy may be in for a soft patch, but there are no signs of recession yet.

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For now the economic expansion remains healthy, but could fade some in the second half of the year.

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The U.S. deficit was not a bond market negative in 2004, but continuing long term deficits will become a negative.

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We estimate +3.3% real GDP growth in 2005, after weakening in the second half of the year.

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The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.

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CPI and PPI declined more than expected in December due to impact of lower energy prices.

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The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Recession could possibly be getting underway by end of 2005.

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Continued U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative, but we are getting more optimistic about the dollar.

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Lower than expected 2004 budget deficit was a short term bond market positive, but longer term deficits are a negative.

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This annual exercise is a critical examination of our research effort for the year...presenting both the things we did well and also those things we didn’t do so well.

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Jim Floyd devotes several pages of “Inside The Stock Market” to answer client questions. Included are questions about reported versus operating earning, the impact of inflation on small cap stocks, and our rationale behind our interest rate target among others.

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Higher oil prices and higher food prices pushed recent CPI and PPI higher. Next month’s readings will likely show less inflation with oil prices coming down some recently.

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Deficit narrowing. Last three months’ (including first month of fiscal 2005) receipts remarkably strong, while outlays have declined.

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Everyday consumers must find it difficult to believe twelve month inflation is just 2.5% (CPI-U), especially when filling up their gas tanks and their grocery carts.

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Steve Leuthold answers client questions in this month’s “View From The North Country”, including his thoughts on the slowing earnings growth, and his definition of secular bear markets. His dollar outlook is also updated.

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After all the outrage over Enron and other accounting scandals, Congress is now working to over rule the FASB recommendations and guidelines regarding the accounting for options. They have clearly caved to the Tech lobby and their campaign contributions.

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Bond yields have declined 40-55 basis points in the past three months.

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Falling interest rates and declining oil prices should bolster consumer spending and hopefully get us past the current economic soft spot.

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GDP growth of 4.0% projected for 2004. Improved 2004 budget deficit projections a short term positive for bonds but eventually could be a negative.

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