Inflation

Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends make further Fed tightening almost a certainty.

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Favorite stock groups now “inflation and interest rate proof”?

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Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends make further Fed tightening almost a certainty.

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Yield curve inversion reflects supply/demand dynamics, expectations of further Fed tightening and unwinding of short strategies by speculators.

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Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends  make further Fed tightening likely.

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Rising equity prices, strong economic news, and inflation trends  make further Fed tightening likely (next year).

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Rising stocks and still good economic news make third Fed boost likely.

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Rising stocks and better economic news could increase chance of third Fed boost near term.

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Inflation is on the rise…normal business cycle inflation, not the rebirth of new secular inflation. Also, the stampede of the lambs…the powerbase for the stock market has moved from Wall Street to Main Street.

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Two recent bump-up’s in rates by Fed may not be enough.

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Last month’s 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely.

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Recent 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely but T-bonds now look to be in the high end of a buying zone.

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Despite proclamation of a “neutral” bias toward future interest rate shifts, expect the Fed to raise short rates at least 25 basis points more.

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Strong likelihood the Fed will tighten in next few months, but today’s market rates may already factor in future 25-50 basis point Fed bump up in short rates.

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New inflation fears and strong economy contributing to higher yields. Think Fed may tighten (50% likelihood) in coming months to slow down amazing economy.

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New inflation fears and strong economy contributing to higher yields. Fed may tighten in coming months to slow down this high powered economy.

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Big Rise in Treasury yields has resulted in improved risk/reward profile for T-bonds.

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At current levels U.S. T-bonds are viewed as neutral.  U.S. T-bond upside potential now only slightly above downside potential.

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All in all, inflation pressures are expected to remain minimal. Through 1999, the CPI and PPI will likely remain between an environment of mild inflation and mild deflation.

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At current levels U.S. T-bonds are no longer viewed as attractive. U.S. T-bond potential downside now about matches upside potential. Our 17 year old 5% T-bond target was achieved last month.

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