Inflation

Bond market was punished again in March by continued (forced?) hedge fund selling and unexpected stronger economic signals casting doubts on further Fed easing. Rising labor costs and higher energy and grain prices provided reasons for worry.

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A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.

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A review of the major stock market positives and negatives as Steve currently views them. There are now six major positives and four major negatives.

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Bond market was pummeled in February by weaker dollar, aggressive hedge fund selling, and Mr. Greenspan’s positive economic comments which cast doubts on further significant Fed easing.

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Bond market rally stalled out in January...concern over the recent spike in gold prices, political uncertainty, and upcoming treasury auction, seemed to outweigh the weak economic news. Bonds seem over-extended on a short term basis.

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Thermal pollution time…Steve Leuthold’s 1996 views (and 1995 reviews) on stocks, interest rates, economy, dollar, deficit, earnings, alternative investment areas and, yes, the Super Bowl.

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Bond market rally continued in December. Government shutdown curtailed information flow, but economy still looks lame and inflation tame. Investors forced to focus on Washington's political farce.

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The big bond market rally continued to roll ahead in November, with yields in most bond sectors falling 20-25 basis points.

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Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing. Other positives include strong foreign buying, and improving fiscal disciplines.

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Weighing In: Updating positives and negatives for stocks...adding earnings momentum as a positive.

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Weighing In: Updating positives and negatives for stocks...technology leadership is fragmenting — shifting this positive to neutral.

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Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing...other positives include stronger dollar, foreign buying, and declining budget deficit.

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Weighing In: The big positives and the big negatives for stocks...as we see them. Four possible upsets to bullish complacency.

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Bond market rally rekindles, as consensus changes from “one and done” to possibility of further easing...other positives include stronger dollar and foreign buying.

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Does an “Information Revolution” justify unprecedented equity valuations for the broad market? Another downward inflation revision and a novel way to promote Social Security reform.

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Bond market rally sputters, as consensus changes from multiple Fed rate cuts to “one and done”. Greenspan upbeat assessment of economy chokes off further bond advance.

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Powerful bond rally in May and early June started to lose its sizzle later in the month, as less negative economic news diminished chances of imminent Fed easing.

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Powerful bond rally in May and early June propels bond performance to move ahead of stocks year to date.

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“Polling the pros” in April, adjusting stock market dividend yields for “buybacks”, mutual fund flows, looking beneath the Finished Goods PPI, and the possibility of rising inflation and interest rates.

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Weight of the evidence bond market Major Trend still negative this month. Weak dollar, commodity inflation warnings, combined with diminishing investor demand helped to keep our Index in negative territory.

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