Inflation

What Has Been The Best Inflationary Environment For Stock Market Performance?...How Have Stocks Done In Deflationary Years?...121 Years Of History Examined...Also Looks At P/E Ratios In Different Inflationary Environments

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The late October bond market retreat spilled over into November, as nervous investors continued to be bombarded with better than expected economic reports.

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Bond market bulls experienced a brief chill in mid-October. After starting the month on a strong note, most bond categories retreated for the remainder of the month as better economic news began to trickle in.

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Almost all bond sectors were unchanged or up very slightly in September. The month started out strongly following weak economic news and a declining PPI. However, a higher than expected CPI, turmoil in Mother Russia, a “pop” in oil prices and even some positive economic reports pushed most bond prices lower as the month progressed.

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Doctor Leuthold At Your Service...Bad News For The PBGC (And Taxpayers)...Inflation And Regulation...Insensitivity Prevails

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The bond market's wish list was fulfilled in August. Inflation readings came in below expectations, economic signals continued to point towards sluggish growth and signs of deficit reduction progress surfaced once again.

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Long treasuries moved higher during the first half of July buoyed by favorable June inflation numbers and generally weak economic signals. However, most bond prices did an about face in the middle of the month.

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Presented herein is an update of the debt monetization studies presented two months ago. Data has now been released for the first quarter of 1993, and there is virtually no change. Nevertheless, judging by client response, this will be of interest to our readers.

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Yields remained in a narrow trading band in early June, as investors braced themselves for another volley of ominous PPI and CPI announcements. But, upon release of May's surprisingly good inflation numbers, the bond market began a steady march upward for most of the remainder of the month.

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Client Questions...Gold: Is It A New Bull Market?...Gambling Stock Update...The 50 Largest Non-Financial Multinationals, A Survey By The Economist

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Shorter-term treasuries finished May on a weak note, reflecting concerns over possible tightening by the Fed. Long treasuries were nearly unchanged for the month, realizing a slight gain, as the President's deficit reduction plan cleared its first hurdle.

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The early April surge in the bond market stalled out at the late February highs, beating a hasty retreat in the last week of the month.

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Corporates managed a gain in March but Treasuries were weak near month end. Developing an “unbiased” Bond Market Trend Index based on a list of factors that we feel are important in determining the overall health of the long U.S. bond market.

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The bond market is looking increasingly vulnerable. The economy appears to be deteriorating, inflation is nowhere in sight and short rates are declining. With all this going for it, why is the bond market stagnating?

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My current view towards long bonds from an institutional investor's point of view is to sell some now and sell some more when longer term momentum slows.

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Overall, July was one heck of a month for the fixed income markets. Most of the move in short term paper came early in the month but longer term fixed income securities continued their steady rise until the last three days of July.

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June was a rather steady dull month in the bond market but there was a pre-4th of July explosion on the upside as bond market grave dancers cheered the stunning jump in unemployment.  

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The bond market, helped out by some good CPI and PPI numbers, scored typical net gains of 2+ points in May. Long bond yields, corporates, treasury zeros and treasury coupon bond yields fell 20 basis points....all in all, a pretty good month.

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The bond market continued to edge higher in the first part of April, but then the Chicago River drained the T-bond market of its liquidity, flooding out T-bond and T-note futures trading.

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The long bond market edged to a marginal new high in mid-November but sagged in the last half of the month. On the other hand, short rates fell sharply. Once again it has been demonstrated that long and short rates do not have to move together.

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