Fund Flow

U.S. focus equity fund net outflow of $17 billion is estimated for September.

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August Marks Third Consecutive Month of Net Redemptions with estimate at $5 billion. Chasing performance has historically left Main Street investors buying the peaks and selling the troughs.

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The important role of cash levels in today’s mutual funds.

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Estimated U.S. equity net outflow for July is an all time record in dollar terms, but less than Oct. 1987 as percentage of assets.

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Estimate outflow of $20 billion in June, largest redemption month since Sept 01…..Not yet panic mode as this only represents 0.7% of total U.S. equity fund assets.

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The stock market's decline has been relentless and now even Small Caps have joined the retreat. But, while mutual fund investors have been skittish, they have not panicked up to now. Also, is this a Secular Bear Market?

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The billion dollar question at this point is: Can Main Street investors keep the faith?

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2002’s YTD net inflow is running 180% of last year’s pace even though stock market performance has been about the same.

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As demonstrated by the fact that 2002 YTD level is much better than 2001, Main Street investors’ confidence in the stock market has made a major comeback.

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January and February’s cash flows have picked up from the very low levels seen throughout 2001, but this is not necessarily a sign that Main Street investors have fallen in love with the stock market again.

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Last month in this section we discussed the DALBAR study finding that mutual fund investors radically underperform. Their conclusions seemed reasonable, but the degree of underperformance was difficult to believe. We begin to examine their methodology this month.

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January 2002 fund flows and a review of the cash flow trends, comparing 2001 levels to previous years.

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There has now been net inflow in each of the last three months, but this doesn't mean that investor confidence has recovered.

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Estimate inflow of $13 billion in November, a big increase from October. September’s “record” net redemptions in perspective.

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“Record” outflow only 10th highest as a percent of Equity Fund  assets. But, as a percent of stock market capitalization, September net outflow was about on par with October 1987.

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September’s outflow a record dollar-wise, but only represents 0.7% of total equity fund assets. This is not indicative of a panic by Main Street investors.

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YTD, $55 billion net inflow now running 73% behind last year’s $201 billion for the same period.

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The past two months have seen growing caution on the part of Main Street investors, as monthly net inflow levels have declined to single digit levels in each of the past two months.

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $14 billion is estimated for June. The bear market which began roughly 15 months ago has caused investors to become much more cautious toward equities this year, as evidenced by the depressed YTD net inflow levels going into U.S. focus equity funds.

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $15 billion is estimated for May, which is somewhat less than the $17.5 billion net inflow in April, but somewhat more than $13.2 billion net inflow last May.

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