Fund Flow

Four trends worth noting and their implications for 2008.

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Funds offering exposure to non-U.S. equity asset classes have been seeing a fair amount of net inflow this year, while U.S. equity funds have been mostly ignored.

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U.S. focus equity mutual funds outflow now within striking distance of the all-time record outflow of $25 billion for all of 2002.

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Despite a respectable S&P 500 gain of 18% over this eighteen month period, it appears Main Street investors want little to do with the domestic stock market.

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Not only is October ‘National Pork Month’ in the U.S., it is the “Year of the Pig” in China. This brings to mind the old stock market homily “A Bull can make money and a Bear can make money, but Pigs are losers.”

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The YTD net redemptions of $11 billion further substantiate the idea that individuals’ lukewarm aversion toward the U.S. stock market is now turning into full-fledged revulsion.

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Because Main Street investors have ignored the U.S. stock market during the recent bull market, they are not a useful contrarian gauge. However, in looking at foreigners investing in the U.S. stock market, we may have identified a new source of contrary behavior.

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The YTD numbers further advance the notion that Main Street wants little new exposure to the U.S. stock market.

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Performance chasing Main Street investors have been channeling their assets elsewhere, despite the respectable returns to be found within their own domestic equity market.

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2007 half time report. Revisiting our original 2007 projections with some current modifications. Outlook for stock market, interest rates, inflation, profits, economy, the deficits, the U.S. dollar and gold.

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This is the first time that combined net demand for open-end funds and ETFs has been negative since last December, and is quite interesting, even unusual, considering the stock market continued to post new highs during the most recent month.

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Since economic fundamentals are providing little help lately, an understanding of bond sentiment has become especially helpful.

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We view traditional open-end funds as the primary indicator of individual investor sentiment, and consider ETF demand primarily a function of professional demand. With that said, the positive $3.5 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds in April tells us that individual investors remain cautious.

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The numbers tell us that investors have clearly begun to diversify into other asset classes and that the U.S. stock market is no longer the only game in town.

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The $8.1 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds is a good sign that individual investors had been warming up to the U.S. stock market recently, although recent stock market volatility could change all that.

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The $4.1 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds is clearly indicating that Main Street investors are entering 2007 with a cautious outlook for the U.S. stock market.

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As measured by the lackluster levels of cash flow into U.S. equity funds, much of 2006 saw a low level of interest in the U.S. stock on the part of Main Street investors, despite the continued gains posted by U.S. equity indexes.

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For open end equity funds, the last seven months have seen nearly $28 billion of net redemptions despite the fact that the S&P 500 has risen almost 7%.

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The surprising restraint in investor enthusiasm has been a key pillar behind our bullish case for the stock market.

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The last time there were six consecutive months of net outflow was over seventeen years ago, in 1989, when a protracted period of monthly net outflow followed the 1987 stock market crash.

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