Fund Flow

Election should be a non-event for stock market. No matter which party gains control of House or Senate, we expect to see two more years of gridlock. Also, still bullish on Industrial Metals and the unusual behavior of U.S. Equity Fund Flows.

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For the traditional equity funds, this was the fifth straight month of net redemptions.

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While the figures do not suggest much growth in demand for domestic equity funds since last year, they do indicate that ETFs are gaining market share.

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Both domestic and foreign market equity funds have seen a big fall-off of interest in the wake of recent market declines.

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Both domestic and foreign markets have seen confidence crushing declines, causing many investors to pull cash from equity holdings and perhaps direct that cash into safer havens.

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On a YTD basis, flow into domestic focused stock funds significantly trails the record-breaking amount of flow going into international and global equity funds.

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On a YTD basis, flow into domestic focused stock funds significantly trails the record-breaking amount of flow going into international and global equity funds.

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On a YTD basis, flow into domestic focused stock funds significantly trails the record-breaking amount of flow going into international and global equity funds— similar to what we saw for much of 2005.

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Stocks continued to move higher in the first quarter, with many of the broad market indexes finishing out Q1 near their cyclical highs.

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To us, the infatuation with foreign funds is looking pretty frothy and certainly raises a contrarian red flag.

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It was looking to be a fairly good month in terms of net cash flow until the third week of January when domestic equity ETFs were socked with nearly $7.5 billion of outflow (which we are certain was institutional activity).

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2005's YTD tally is the second lowest going back 14 years, and demonstrates fund investors’ consistent aversion to U.S. focused stock funds throughout the year.

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While November’s net inflow of $3 billion into traditional open-end equity funds is a break from this recent outflow trend, it’s still a stretch to say that Main Street investors are embracing stocks once again.

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $1.5 billion is estimated for October, which ends two consecutive months of net redemptions in August and September.

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Now with two months of net outflow, we could be seeing complacency giving way to market concern.

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In reviewing the numerous Supply/Demand factors we track, there were four trends that are perhaps the most important and/or most interesting on this front so far in 2005.

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Despite evidence to the contrary, many continue to think that investment in exchange traded funds is commanding the lion’s share of new money flow going into all equity funds.

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $12 billion is estimated for May, the strongest month of cash inflow since November 2004’s $12.9 billion.

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This is the first month of net redemptions in eight months, the last time being the month of August 2004.

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Weekly flow has been relatively subdued for much of the first quarter.

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