Fund Flow

Weekly flow during the month of February mostly followed the trend of the stock market.

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It is clear Main Street investors have become more apprehensive about the stock market compared to 12 months ago when confidence was higher.

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Equity funds with a domestic focus continue to face big competition from their foreign focus counterparts.

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Main Street’s rush into international stock funds could be foreshadowing tougher times ahead for foreign markets.

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Equity funds with a domestic focus made a big comeback in November, posting the largest monthly net inflow since last February. In fact, more money came in during November alone than in the previous four months combined.

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Interest in Foreign Focus Equity funds has been running at near record levels. From a contrarian standpoint, this makes us a little uneasy about the foreign markets.

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We have been proponents of Small Cap stocks since the beginning of the bear market. However, we may be approaching a transition to Large Cap leadership.

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $10.0 billion is estimated for September.

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U.S. focus equity fund net outflow of $5.0 billion is estimated for August.

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Clearly, in recent months,  the public has become much less enthusiastic about the stock market.

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $11 billion is estimated for June, reversing May’s light net outflow.

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While 2004 YTD inflow levels are not in “record” territory, this year has, so far, seen the second highest YTD level in history.

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Although recent market weakness has not yet resulted in any weekly net redemptions, weekly cash flow levels are becoming increasingly volatile…..perhaps reflecting the times.

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Our equity exposure still overweight in small and mid cap stocks, but we expect the market is progressing to a state of parity.

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While investors appeared to be cooling on the stock market mid-month, the month end rally served to invigorate Main Street’s penchant for chasing performance.

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The numbers continue to be strong. At this point, we attribute the strong flow to a combination of seasonals, and pent up demand.

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January's equity fund flow was very strong across all equity subsets.

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This month’s “Of Special Interest” presents a critical review of what we thought was the best of The Leuthold Group’s work in 2003 and what was the worst.

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We have now seen ten straight months of positive cash flow, totaling $141 billion. This momentum will likely spill over into 2004.

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Public does not yet seem to phased by the mutual fund scandals as November marked the ninth consecutive month of net inflow to U.S. focus mutual funds, totaling $133 billion of net inflow.

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