Fund Flow
Bullish...At Least for a While
The public is back as evidenced by strong mutual fund cash inflows. Seasonally strong Q1 mutual fund inflows should push the DJIA above 10,000. Traditional “January Effect” may be absent again in 1999, as it has previous four years.
October Mutual Fund Flows
Public confidence measures have taken some sharp declines in recent weeks but mutual fund investors have cautiously returned as net buyers. Meanwhile the mountain of cash in U.S. focus equity mutual funds has climbed to $125 billion.
September Mutual Fund Flows
Based on our estimates of mutual fund inflows at various market levels, it looks like more fund owners are now under water. About $116 billion was invested in the market above current levels. Nervous but not panicked mutual fund investors.
Inside the Bond Market
T-bond achieves Leuthold long term target of 5%: hedge fund turmoil and Asia induced flight to quality has helped drive rates down too far, too fast. When some of the short term distortion subsides, yields could pop back up.
Inside the Bond Market
T-bond ahead of itself, fueled by flight to credit quality...Yields could back up should Asia outlook improve, or equity market rally significantly.
August Mutual Fund Flows
Weekly inflows for the month of August were positive in the early part of the month, but quickly turned to net redemptions as the market fell. The data demonstrates that investors continue to buy on strength. They don’t buy the dips!
August Was Terrible
August’s decline was the largest monthly decline since October 1987. Recommended Client Strategy: maintain most defensive equity stance available - if cash is not an option, concentrate in defensive equity sectors.
Inside the Bond Market
Bond market still ahead of itself, fueled by flight to credit quality...But money flows could slow, should Asia outlook improve, or Japan act decisively.
July Mutual Fund Flows
According to the latest ICI report, fund managers investing in U.S equities were hoarding cash during the month of June. Percentage of assets rises to 4.1%, but still near all-time lows.
June Mutual Fund Flows
Estimated net inflows into U.S. equity funds increased significantly in June compared to May and nearly doubled year ago flows.
May Mutual Fund Flows
Mutual fund investors’ enthusiasm cooled during May’s volatile stock market, leaving monthly total equity fund inflows at the lowest level since March 1997.
The Not So Merry Month of May
May was malicious for most portfolio managers. Despite just modest declines for the S&P 500 and DJIA, 80% of Leuthold sectors were down more.
Bond Market Summary
Near term, bond market now stabilizing after being roughed up during most of April…We see no imminent Fed loosening or tightening in the cards at this point.
April Mutual Fund Flows
Net inflows into U.S. equity funds for April are estimated to be down slightly from March but still running almost 40% ahead of a year ago.
April: Earnings Cross Currents
Late April preliminary real GDP estimate was a strong 4.2% gain, with the lowest inflation adjustment in 34 years. The price index for gross domestic purchases was unchanged from the prior quarter for the first time since 1954.
March Mutual Fund Flows
Net inflows into U.S. equity funds extremely strong and now nearly 30% ahead of impressive 1997 levels. Fund flow controversy revisited. Still no consensus regarding December’s huge discrepancies between the top two data providers on the mutual fund cash flows.
February Mutual Fund Flows
Domestic equity inflows for 1998 lag last year’s levels, but still very strong...However, bond and money market fund flows YTD are significantly ahead of1997’s pace.
January Mutual Fund Flows
Net inflows into equity funds lagged somewhat behind last January. We estimate U.S. focus equity funds experienced still strong net inflows of $17 billion, but foreign focus net inflows may have been less than $1 billion (net redemptions in the first few weeks).
Bond Market Summary
Long treasuries are still well above the underlying interest rate (real rate of 4%-5%). The inflation outlook remains tame.
November Mutual Fund Flows
The market fell in the week ending 11/5 and inflows dried up. Then came the surprise. The market rallied, but fund investors stayed on the sidelines.
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