Fund Flow
Watch Out Below
Four possible upsets to bullish complacency.
Monitoring Mutual Fund Cash Flows
Supply/Demand: $11.2 billion net cash into U.S. focus equity funds versus $9 billion of equity offerings in July.
Still Watching the Bull Market Go By Us
Who's leading the bull market charge? Unsophisticated investors?
Monitoring Mutual Fund Cash Flows
$8 billion net inflow to Domestic Equity Funds in June. New and secondary equity offerings picking up, big block insider sale at record high (in dollars).
Today’s Stock Market Lifeblood: Mutual Fund Flows
The Leuthold Group has been intensifying its fund flow analytical work because we believe it is now the most important U.S. stock market internal factor.
Monitoring Mutual Fund Cash Flows
Mutual fund investors less enthusiastic…Redemptions about matched inflows at the end of May. Supply of equities is starting to build, while cash holdings in funds is diminishing.
Bond Market Summary
Powerful bond rally in May and early June propels bond performance to move ahead of stocks year to date.
Worth Noting
“Polling the pros” in April, adjusting stock market dividend yields for “buybacks”, mutual fund flows, looking beneath the Finished Goods PPI, and the possibility of rising inflation and interest rates.
Focus on Fund Flows
The tidal wave of equity mutual fund cash flows continues to roll in. “Cash” percentage in growth oriented equity funds hit a 12-year low. New equity supply may now about match mutual fund cash inflows. Cart or horse? Do the mutual fund cash flows drive the market or does the market drive them?
Mutual Fund Cash Flow Focus
While the aggregate flow to mutual funds continues to be a net inflow, it is down substantially from year ago levels and some types of funds have been seeing net outflows.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Equity offerings have picked up somewhat, but so has the flow into mutual funds. Supply/Demand still seems in reasonable balance.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Positive net cash flows into U.S. focus mutual funds are no longer overwhelming new equity offerings. But no investor panic yet.
Major Trend Index Remains Negative
Bond market decline may be in final stages, but stock market can still fall 25%, even if bonds stabilize in coming months.
Supply/Demand Considerations
New equity offerings now about matching net inflows into U.S. focus equity mutual funds. Still no evidence of net redemptions for U.S. focus equity funds.
Inside the Bond Market
Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.
Supply/Demand Considerations
During August, net inflows into U.S. focus equity mutual funds totaled $10 billion, triple August’s equity offering’s. This has changed in September, with expanded underwritings, but a reduced flow into equity mutual funds. An imbalance could be developing.
Supply/Demand Considerations
New equity supply contracts sharply in August as Wall Street goes to the beach. Equity fund buyers continue to pour the money in, so demand greater than new supply in August.
Growing Investor Frustration
An extract from Leuthold & Anderson’s second quarter client letter.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Cash still flowing into equity mutual funds, but net cash flows contracted some in June. New equity supply also shrinks some.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Cash still flowing into Equity Mutual Funds...Net cash flows steady in April and May.
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