Fund Flow
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
Equity Mutual Funds registered $1 billion in net redemptions in latest week. March net inflows down from February but still at strong levels considering weak new supply.
Interim Memo: Major Trend Index Turns Negative
Major Trend turned negative March 24th...Clients notified via Interim Memo. Bull market topping out or possibly already has. Market breadth measures signaling significant market deterioration.
February Mutual Fund Flows
Revised January 1997 U.S. equity mutual fund flows of $23.4 billion, setting an all-time record. February’s estimate of $20 billion brings YTD U.S. focus fund flows to $43 billion, well ahead of last year’s record pace.
Current Outlook
It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term the market may go higher.
Equity Fund Flows...Short Term
Longer term studies of mutual fund inflows, cash reserves, etc., can be found in the "Supply/Demand" section of this publication.
Equity Fund Flows...Short Term
Longer term studies of mutual fund inflows, cash reserves, etc., can be found in the “Supply/Demand” section of this publication.
Bond Market Summary
Bond rally has further to go in 1997 (6% or lower) if nervous equity investors seek safer havens, economy slows, and foreign appetite for U.S. Fixed Income remains. U.S. yields remain relatively high.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
For the month of November, net inflows into U.S. focus funds are estimated at $14.4 billion, up 26% from $11.4 billion in October and above the $13.1 billion of November 1995.
Today’s Mutual Fund Investor Attitudes
Lou Harris recent poll indicates mutual fund investors’ expectations are unrealistically high and many would sell if market declines.
In “Never Never Land”
It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term it may go higher.
Bond Market Summary
Bonds outperformed stocks over past two months. Most investors not well positioned to take advantage of an extended period of bond’s performance superiority. As inflation threat recedes and economy slows, bonds should continue to outperform.
October Mutual Fund Flows
U.S. mutual fund flow less bullish in October (may be seasonal).
Looking Behind the “Household” Numbers
Are U.S. “Households” net equity sellers? We don’t think so!
Year-End Cross Currents Start Early
While September was a surprisingly strong month, October was just confusing. Year-end cross currents seem to have started early this year. Major Trend Index now just barely in neutral territory with a ratio of 0.95.
Bond Market Summary
Bonds (including zeros) expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months. Economy should slow by year end (recession in 1997?). Inflation should remain under control.
September Mutual Fund Flows
Supply/Demand bullish in September. Mutual fund net inflows increase to an estimated $11 billion in September.
A September Surprise (To Me)
September a surprisingly strong month, with 4%-5% gains for most market indices. Significant MTI improvement, but still a ways from Neutral.
Bond Market Summary
Bonds (including zeros) expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow by year end, inflation should remain under control, corporate earnings momentum expected to gradually fade.
Can This Happen Here?
Assets under management in Japan's mutual fund industry now at 9% of what they were less than 7 years ago.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
Mutual fund net inflows increase to an estimated $14 billion in August.
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