Fund Flow

Bonds (including zeros) expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow by year end, inflation should remain under control, corporate earnings momentum expected to gradually fade.

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Since turning negative on July 2, the Major Trend Index has deteriorated very rapidly. Major stock market top now seems to be developing. There are now five stock market positives and seven negatives.

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A new weekly chart tracking mutual fund cash flow, along with S&P 500 Index. Flow has been fading, new figures awaited eagerly.

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In recent weeks, the speculative nature of the market has cooled some, and the flow into aggressive or emerging growth funds has subsided.

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Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow, inflation should remain under control, and corporate earnings momentum should gradually fade.

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Baby boomers are investing in stock funds at the rate of $100 per month for every living American!

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A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.

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Insight derived from Jim Bianco’s excellent Market Commentaries. At Arbor Trading Group Inc., Jim does some of the best, original, and thought provoking work that comes into our shop.

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Major Trend remains positive, total equity exposure remains at 58%, using index options to minimize and reduce risk. The “new valuation era” continues. Demand for U.S. equity funds continues to be key driver.

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Major Trend Index now positive, after changing weight of equity fund flows. Additional changes made in technical breadth and momentum measures should increase responsiveness when the current “new valuation era” closes down.

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A review of the major stock market positives and negatives as Steve currently views them. There are now six major positives and four major negatives.

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No January effect this year. It was a large cap show, with the DJIA (+5.4%) outperforming 85%-90% of stock groups and sectors for the month and the S&P trouncing about 70%.

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During the month of January, two major stock market positive factors became more positive, three remained about the same, and one became less positive. Among the four negative factors, all four became more negative.

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Bond market rally stalled out in January...concern over the recent spike in gold prices, political uncertainty, and upcoming treasury auction, seemed to outweigh the weak economic news. Bonds seem over-extended on a short term basis.

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The big bond market rally continued to roll ahead in November, with yields in most bond sectors falling 20-25 basis points.

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The stock market: What IS different this time? The public's appetite for equity investing continues to top Wall Street’s ability to manufacture supply.

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Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing. Other positives include strong foreign buying, and improving fiscal disciplines.

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Fear has been long term investors’ greatest enemy, primarily because it keeps them from being long term investors.

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Weighing In: The big positives and the big negatives for stocks...as we see them. Four possible upsets to bullish complacency.

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Because of the huge current stock market significance of sustained public inflows into equity funds, we are now monitoring these flows on a weekly basis.

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