Fed Policy
Worth Noting
Steve’s notes on revising the GDP calculation, market implications of discount rate cut, stock market capitalization as a percentage of the GDP and more.
Bond Market Summary
Powerful bond rally in May and early June started to lose its sizzle later in the month, as less negative economic news diminished chances of imminent Fed easing.
Bond Market Summary
Weight of the evidence bond market Major Trend still negative this month. Weak dollar, commodity inflation warnings, combined with diminishing investor demand helped to keep our Index in negative territory.
Stock Market Hits New Highs, But Major Trend Is Still Negative
Greenspan's comments about the possibility of lower short term rates and orchestrating a soft landing ignited the bond market and stocks followed suit, with several market indices hitting new highs.
Economy Showing No Signs of Cooling Off
Economy Humming Along...Fed Not Done Yet...Inflation Still Number One Worry
View From the North Country
The Economic Surprise And Inflation, The Feds Overheating Economy And Inflation Fears Are Justified and “Contract With America”: The Danger Is Big Tax Cuts But Minimal Spending Cuts
Inside the Bond Market
Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.
Major Trend Index Remains Negative
Major Trend moves deeper into negative territory...Commodity Diffusion Index move above 70% does not inspire us either.
View From the North Country
The dithering dollar. Did we miss our golden opportunity? Some think there is current hope for Social Security reform. Is new NASDAQ rule an uptick or upchuck? The bears are howling.
View From the North Country
How Bush and the boys rescued the banks without busting the FDIC, fiscal responsibility in the 1993 Congress is examined and what the recent surge in commodity inflation means.
Major Trend Index Fades to Neutral
Major Trend Index drops back to "neutral" territory. Don't jump the gun and assume the Index will fall to "negative".
Major Trend Index Improves Significantly In January
Major Trend Index moved now comfortably back in positive territory. 96 point decline February 4th is probably setting up a good tactical buying opportunity.
Debt Monetization: Is The Printing Press Working Overtime?
Debt monetization evaluated by three separate measures. All three measures suggest monetization is increasing, however the severity of this trend is debatable. Judge for yourself.
Bond Market Summary
The bond market is looking increasingly vulnerable. The economy appears to be deteriorating, inflation is nowhere in sight and short rates are declining. With all this going for it, why is the bond market stagnating?
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
