Bonds

Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve is flattening out.

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Streisand concert tickets got more bids than treasuries in late March and the first day of April. It was a painful period for both bond and stock investors.

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Weight of the evidence now mildly negative on bond market.

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The U.S. stock market environment seems to be pretty much a continuation of the 1993 frolics, big new supply and continued institutional buying as professionals invest new cash flow from individual investors who don't know that Wall Street can be a two way street.

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Almost all bond sectors were unchanged or up very slightly in September. The month started out strongly following weak economic news and a declining PPI. However, a higher than expected CPI, turmoil in Mother Russia, a “pop” in oil prices and even some positive economic reports pushed most bond prices lower as the month progressed.

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Shorter-term treasuries finished May on a weak note, reflecting concerns over possible tightening by the Fed. Long treasuries were nearly unchanged for the month, realizing a slight gain, as the President's deficit reduction plan cleared its first hurdle.

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The early April surge in the bond market stalled out at the late February highs, beating a hasty retreat in the last week of the month.

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Corporates managed a gain in March but Treasuries were weak near month end. Developing an “unbiased” Bond Market Trend Index based on a list of factors that we feel are important in determining the overall health of the long U.S. bond market.

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In terms of outstanding investment returns from U.S. markets, the last 10 years have been close to unprecedented but the next decade in this business won't be so easy. This is what our historical research and common sense tells us.

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There were two mighty explosions in lower Manhattan in February. One was horrible and the other wonderful, at least for the banks and brokers who had loaded up on bonds and notes. However, from this publication's standpoint, both explosions were pretty much viewed as horrible. (See comments later in this section.)

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Yes, the fixed income markets are confusing these days. Maybe the fog will clear after the election. But here on November 2nd, I won't speculate on that.

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Our Major Trend Index inched up in late July, but remained decidedly in negative territory. Following the dictates of our disciplined weight of the evidence approach, we remain very cautious toward the U.S. equity market.

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The bond market sagged in the first half of March as the economic outlook improved, deficit dears increased and the crowd of early 1992 bond market bulls pulled in their horns.

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The T-bond market continued its slide in the first hald of February, extending the peak to trough decline to 60 basis points.

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With no strong evidence of an economic rebound, an increasing number of professionals are having second thoughts. Maybe the recession is not over. Maybe 1992 will feature a second leg down. More than anything, I believe these “second thoughts” are the root cause of the current correction.

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The bond market parted company with the stock market in September, extending its July-August advance while the stock market backed and filled. Only junk bonds were a mixed bag, as all other fixed income sectors moved up in tandem.

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August was a good month for bonds. Long treasuries recorded net gains of three points or more, with yields falling 30 basis points. T-bonds are now back up to where we sold them in January and February 1991.

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In July, the bond market gained back about what it had lost in June. After a quick sell off following Independence Day, prices moved erratically higher for the remainder of the month.

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The first half of June was almost all downhill for the bond market. The remainder of the month was spent moving sideways, with a blast upward on the last day of the month. It was a mini flee to quality.

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In early May, the bond market was hit hard by a post Treasury financing sell off. It spent the rest of the month recovering.

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