Bonds

High Yield bonds rated marginally attractive after continued spread narrowing.

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“Risk-free bond returns could become return-free risks.” The Leuthold Group has hedged its fixed income position by shorting U.S. Treasuries. May completely hedge entire fixed income exposure later this month.

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Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom. But are lower rates really necessary to boost business spending?

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The grand 20+ year secular bull market in bonds is probably topping out.

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The spread between Long Quality Corporates and twenty year Treasury bonds at the pinnacle is back down to a more normal range, as the Treasury shortage elimination-thesis has fallen apart due to rising budget deficits.

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We believe it is still an opportune time to add to High Yield positions. The economy is improving and corporate profits are rebounding from depressed levels.

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Huge secular bull market in bonds (emerging in 1981) is topping out.

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Expect CPI and PPI to both edge higher in second half of year...could be negative surprise, but not something big.

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Expect CPI and PPI to both edge higher in second half of year...could be negative surprise, but not the start of something big.

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Expect CPI and PPI to both edge higher in second half of year...could be negative surprise, but not the start of something big.

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Near term, bond market may continue to rally as economic reports have become more mixed (less bullish). But long term secular bull market in bonds emerging in 1981 has probably topped out.

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Expect rally from current oversold conditions, but overall, we think secular Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.

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Rally due in Q1 2002, but we think Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.

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Rally due in Q1 2002, but we think Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.

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Bond Market weakness is adjustment to end of Fed easing cycle.

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Leuthold’s New Year Predictions for 2002 and a review of last year’s predictions.

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Bond market adjusting to end of Fed easing cycle, expected 2002 economic recovery and corporate rush to lock in lower borrowing costs.

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Expect further Fed cuts in short rates, but this could do more harm than good.

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Yield curve has risen dramatically in recent weeks, probably forecasting economic recovery ahead (6-12 months?), but also reflecting deteriorating budget surplus situation.

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Economy  may already be halfway or more through recession. GDP growth still barely positive, but revisions could change that. Tech bust magnitude and breadth of Q2 profit plunge spell recession.

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