Bonds

Increasingly, stock and bond markets moving in opposite directions. There may be some reasons why this is happening now.

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Bond risk still considered well below potential equity market risk...longer term, bond potential returns at least equal to potential equity returns.

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Fed may tighten later in the year to slow down economy. Inflation cool, but wage pressures a worry. U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields.

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Bond market looks attractive on 6-12 month basis. Economic expansion long in the tooth, but still surprisingly strong...Fed may tighten next time to slow down economy. Inflation cool, but wage pressures a worry.

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Bonds as attractive Risk/Reward substitutes...disguise them with fictional names such as Bondo Ltd., etc.

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Further bond market weakness will be used as opportunity to boost T-bonds (Conventional Portfolio) and T-bond zeros (Unconventional Portfolio).

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No fixed income changes planned for January.  Significant bond market weakness would be viewed as opportunity to accumulate (7% area).

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Bonds outperformed stocks over past two months. Most investors not well positioned to take advantage of an extended period of bond’s performance superiority. As inflation threat recedes and economy slows, bonds should continue to outperform.

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Bonds (including zeros) expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow by year end, inflation should remain under control, corporate earnings momentum expected to gradually fade.

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“If you are expecting long bond rates to fall as low as 6% later in 1997, how come you are so afraid of the stock market?” This question, or some variation thereof, is frequently heard from clients these days.

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Bond market decline slowed in May. But positive economy news, potential Fed tightening (not likely near-term), and labor inflation still disturb bond market investors.

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Bond market retreated in April and early May as Q1 GDP came in well ahead of estimates, raising expectations that the Fed will tighten rather than ease. Longer term, yields could move toward 5%, if confidence in U.S. dollar is rebuilt via fiscal reform.

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A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.

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A review of the major stock market positives and negatives as Steve currently views them. There are now six major positives and four major negatives.

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Weight of the evidence discipline improved from negative to neutral this month.  Long T-bond six and twelve month risk seen only as 8.50% level.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but rally seems underway.

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Major Trend remains in negative territory but market action (both stocks and bonds) improved in July. Short term, both stocks and bonds may continue to rally.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative.

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