Bonds

GDP growth still barely positive, but trend has been sharply lower. May already be halfway through a recession. Tech bust and Q2 profit decline additionally support this view.

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Economy may already be halfway through a recession, but expect economic uptick by early 2002. Fed near end of easing.

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Expect Q2 and Q3 GDP to weaken due to business cost cutting, lagging global economy and less robust consumer spending. But, tax rebate, the Fed, and money supply growth should spawn new economic expansion by early 2002.

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Managing Your Mother Lode…Your Serious Money. Ten rules written for a soon to be published book, The Book Of Investing Rules, which contains an anthology of rules from well-known investors and financial professionals.

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Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect a few more energy related flare ups.

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Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect a few more energy related flare ups.

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Bonds still performing better than stocks in 2001, especially Junk Bonds. Commodity Diffusion Index declined sharply to 42%. Historically this is a significant positive for stocks and bonds.

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Strong mutual fund inflows in January helped propel High Yield bond returns up 7% for the month. Yield spreads narrowed significantly relative to Quality Corporates but remain very attractive.

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U.S economy weakening faster than expected: Global economy also slowing. Increasing odds of a hard landing in 2001.

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Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s New Year predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.

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Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect some energy related flair-ups.

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U.S. economy still has considerable momentum, but see signs of a slowdown ahead...Increasing odds of a recession in 2001, as banks tighten credit, energy costs remain high, and technology stocks falter.

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All in all, inflation pressures are expected to remain minimal. Through 1999, the CPI and PPI will likely remain between an environment of mild inflation and mild deflation.

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Asian crisis not helping much (yet), putting brakes on strong U.S. economy (except on earnings)...Asia (including Japan) will become heavier “drag” on U.& in next six months...Inflation likely to increase slightly but still viewed as tame.

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Near term, bond market now stabilizing after being roughed up during most of April…We see no imminent Fed loosening or tightening in the cards at this point.

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Late April preliminary real GDP estimate was a strong 4.2% gain, with the lowest inflation adjustment in 34 years. The price index for gross domestic purchases was unchanged from the prior quarter for the first time since 1954.

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Near term, bond market now stabilizing after being somewhat ahead of itself...No Fed loosening or tightening in the cards at this point.

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Asian crisis not yet applying brakes to strong U.S. economy...Asia should be bigger “drag” on U.S. in next six months. Near term, bond market still correcting from being somewhat extended.

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Today's moderately positive sloping yield curve may evolve into a flat or mildly inverted yield curve later in 1998...

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Among the industrial nations, U.S. bond market offers highest yields, a reversal from earlier in the decade. Inflation outlook positive.

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