Bonds

A stronger bond market does not necessarily mean a simultaneous rally in stock prices. The two markets did not move in tandem on the way down, and the stock market might well lag on the way up.

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T-Bonds broke the August 1983 lows, but municipals and corporates still seem to be holding. Pessimism is rampant. Investors should consider buying T-bonds now. The biggest risk may now be not owning bonds. I expect a good rally momentarily.

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T-Bonds broke the August 1983 lows, but municipals and corporates seem to be holding. Pessimism is rampant. Investors should consider buying T-Bonds now. The biggest risk may now be not owning bonds. Positive action on the deficit could kick off a large rally.

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The bond market has come back down in our 12% (T-bonds) buying zone. We would buy Zeros and Long T-bonds. A short-term clear break to new lows would not surprise us, but our minimum 1984 Long T-bond target is 10.5%, maybe lower if significant action is taken on deficit.

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The bond market remains in our buying zone. We expect last summer’s lows to hold, and very soon, a sharp upward move in bond prices.

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The Bond Market – 25 Years Ago: In recent years investors have been conditioned to double digit long-term interest rates, and more than a few think it will always be that way. Memories on Wall Street are notoriously short…..Equity Structure Update: Quite a few changes have been made in recent months. This feature details the current conceptual structure.

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The bond market is in the midst of both secular and cyclical bull moves. The cyclical bull market target zone is 9% yields for T-Bonds in the next 12-18 months, maybe much lower on a secular basis. The current correction has carried to our buying zone and we are continuing last month’s new buy program in long T-Bonds.

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The bond market is also in the midst of secular and cyclical bull moves and the six-month consolidation may be over. If T-Bonds clearly exceed November 1982 peaks, assume the cyclical bull market is back on track with a cyclical target zone of 8.5% yields...lower on a secular basis.

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It would appear the bond market correction has further to go. In a few months we will probably recognize this as the first interest rate “hiccup” of the economic recovery.

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While it certainly does not appear the big bull market in bonds is over, it would not be surprising to see an additional five to eight-point correction from current levels.

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