Bear Market

Iraq may have been responsible for knocking a fast 100 points off the market in early August, but the stock market had already rolled over. The Leuthold Group’s Major Trend Index deteriorated significantly with the July 27th calculation. This was before Hussein made his move.

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Upon returning to the office at month end, my first impression of April stock market action was positive. But then I dug into our indicators, chart books and numbers. It was clear my first impression was wrong.

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The Major Trend Index still negative but improved last week. I doubt that the market has recorded its bear market low, but I do think we are getting close.

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