Bear Market
Post Attack
Unlike most past market crises, a post-crisis rally did not immediately follow the September 11th Attack. October Expectations: The passage of time is beginning to moderate Wall Street’s debilitating pain. I think the stock market rebound rally could be about to get underway in earnest.
Looking At Stock Market Risk and Analyzing Past Bear Markets
A look back at 20 prior bear markets (1900 to date) to examine the question, “Just how long does it take to recover from a bear market?”
April Is The "Opportunity" Month
Bear market broadened out in late March to include other than technology sectors. Never before have so many lost so much.…There is plenty of blame to go around. Academia, The Street, the Media, the “Experts” to name a few.
Be A Buyer, Not A Seller
Stock selection in a recession is a different ball game! A look at some of the rules and the traps when investing during a recession. The Bullish Message Of Breadth: Demonstration of how divergences between the S&P 500 and the A/D Lines have denoted market tops and market strength.
Have Increased Equity Exposure
Our Aggressive Stance On Equity Exposure: Fed cuts, money supply expansion, tax cut prospects, fund inflow, and market internals.….Not all worries have gone away, however. This bear market has not followed what can be thought of as a traditional course.
When the Bears Have Thanksgiving, Will the Bulls Have Christmas?
November market devastation not the result of Florida Follies….Tech sector disappointments and lowered prospects are most of it. The Good News: Two-thirds of the current bear market may now be history. Expect counter trend rally soon, but third and final “Bear” leg likely in Q1, 2001.
How Long To Catch Up?
Bear markets and the time to catch up.
View From The North Country
Inflation is on the rise…normal business cycle inflation, not the rebirth of new secular inflation. Also, the stampede of the lambs…the powerbase for the stock market has moved from Wall Street to Main Street.
Back on the Sidelines
Back on sidelines again, Major Trend Index negative. Stage being set for a huge small cap market.
View From the North Country
Bear market or steep correction? Rising inflation could actually be good for equity market over next few years. FASB arrives at a decision which could spell the end to the repricing options practice by making it prohibitively expensive.
View from the North Country
Excerpts from Leo Melamed’s new book. Former Chairman of the "Merc” (home of S&P futures), gives insider view of 1987 stock market crash. Also, my first annual letter to mutual fund shareholders is reprinted here. You want to know what I really think about the stock market?...Here it is.
An Invisible Bear Market?
Has this been an "invisible bear market” with internal rolling corrections in stocks, groups and sectors? A new index from Ned Davis shows this is probably not the case.
1994: A Dull Summer?
Downside equity market risk viewed as significant: still believe 90% probability we are in early stages of a bear market. Could be a dull summer?
What Might “Cause” a 1994 Bear Market?
Some 1994 potential catalysts which could shift stock market psychology.
Does It Make Sense to Defense?
I know it may be difficult for readers to envision much of a market decline in the current environment. However, keep in mind that all bear markets are not “cyclical”. That is, some past bear markets were not related to the business cycle.
Major Trend Index Shifts to “Negative” In April
On Monday April 6th, The Leuthold Group’s Major Trend Index downshifted from “neutral” status to “negative” status. The prudent course is a move to the sidelines, becoming a spectator for a while.
Off the Cuff
October drama…Interest rates and stocks may be uncoupling…Is it too soon to see a bear market?...What could break the back of the Bull?
Is This More Than A Cyclical Bear Market
This publication continues to operate under the assumption that this is a more or less typical cyclical bear market in terms of magnitude and duration.
View from the North Country
The recent “surprise” downward revision in quarterly real GNP growth served to drive the majority of investment professionals and economists from the “no recession” camp. Also, Junk Mail Busters and Ken Safian lives!
Preparing for the Next Bull Market
Here at The Leuthold Group, we are starting to focus on how we are going to structure our equity portfolio for the next bull market.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
