Bear Market

Conventional wisdom and modern day historical evidence indicate that Value stocks do better in bear markets. But from the 1920s through the 1970s, it was Growth that held up best during bear market declines.

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Major Trend Index remains Negative; assume the cyclical bear market prevails, but we increased net equity exposure. Why?

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Doug Ramsey steps in as guest commentator in this month’s “View From The North Country” to highlight what we currently see as the bullish arguments for the stock market and contrast those with the bearish arguments.

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Assuming a bear market has already begun, what can be expected?

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This month Steve again lays out both the Bull and Bear cases.

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Jim Floyd looks at yield curve inversion as a predictor of bear markets. There is some correlation, but the relationship is far from perfect.

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Based on study of bear market recoveries dating back to 1900, the third year of the recovery is typically not strong. However, this current recovery has lagged the normal recoveries in terms of performance.

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Weighing in on the current stock market positives and negatives currently being discussed by clients and Wall Street strategists.

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A look at which equity groups have historically held up best during market declines. We revived our “Defensive Equity Group” theme, with individual stocks selected from each of these individual defensive groups.

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Steve’s assessment of the current bullish and bearish factors. Also, Leuthold’s recent discussion of secular bear markets, sparked some debate among readers.

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Steve Leuthold answers client questions in this month’s “View From The North Country”, including his thoughts on the slowing earnings growth, and his definition of secular bear markets. His dollar outlook is also updated.

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Current economic recovery may appear to be lagging, with a GDP growth rate of +3.6% ACR since Q1 2001, but most recent five expansions averaged +4.2% ACR and the big 1990-2000 expansion grew at only 3.4% per year. Economy is still healthy.

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Although the biggest gains are behind us, based on 1900-to-date, past bull market recoveries, the stock market still has potential upside of 13-16% over next 6-9 months.

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If January’s net outflow is a precursor of what we might see during the balance of 2003, Main Street investors will miss a golden opportunity to invest during an early recovery phase of one of the greatest bear markets in history.

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Biggest losers from the March 2000 market peak.

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I now think the stock market will record its secular bear market lows between now and Thanksgiving. It’s time right now to start an equity accumulation program.

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Past experience seems to indicate that the stock market bottom is likely close at hand.

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Is this a bear market? It certainly is a bear market in integrity! Steve presents the case for both Bears and Bulls.

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Last month’s caution proved to be unwarranted. Would now be described as a bull with reservations. Steve's outline of his bullish case including predictions from “the managing director’s crystal ball”.

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Market shrugged off bad news; but rally from the lows is almost a text book example of a bear market rally. Plus, Steve's current outlook regarding the Economy, Earnings, Inflation, and Interest Rates.

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