Bear Market
Is Another Major Low Lurking Beyond 2009?
Several independent methods are presented that seem to triangulate on the years 2012 and 2013 as candidates for another significant stock market low - - maybe the final low of a secular bear market which began in 2000?
Back From The Brink
The “Fail-Safe” mechanism was removed in mid-March, after market action moved above the re-entry point.
Back To A Less Aggressive Equity Exposure
The “Fail-Safe” was triggered by the poor market action at the end of February, and we are moving towards a 50% net equity exposure. Caution seems prudent despite the Major Trend Index remaining in positive territory.
Is There Any Perspective For Today’s Stock Market?
Eric Bjorgen searches for something beyond The Great Depression or 1990’s Japan. See what he found in this month’s Of Special Interest.
Positive Technical Trends
While there is plenty to worry about, some important technical trends still suggest that November 20, 2008 stands a good chance of being the final low of this bear market.
Technical Comment: Momentum “Divergences” Are Now In Place
The November leg down in stocks was brutal. However, from a technical perspective, the decline was accompanied by the kind of “positive divergences” that typically appear at major lows.
Bear Market Epitaph?
While we can’t be certain that the final figures for the bear market have been booked, it’s worth putting the last 14 months of action into perspective.
Sector Ups and Downs During Bear Markets And Recoveries
Info Tech has demonstrated an ability to lead coming out of bear markets, but still not seeing overall GS Score strength in the sector.
As The Smoke Clears
Based on economic recessions, the sweet spot for stock accumulation seems to be upon us. Valuations also very compelling.
Small Cap Stocks: An Extension In Leadership?
Small Cap leadership trend maybe re-emerging. Doug Ramsey examines Small Cap performance coming out of bear markets. Historically, they have been able to do well as higher beta plays.
Technical Comment: No Worries Over “Dow Theory?"
Dow Theorists looking at current market environment may be concluding stocks could weaken further. However, historically when confirmation from the Transports takes an excessively long time to develop (like it has currently), the technical pattern has actually provided an excellent buy signal.
The Beginning Of The End.....Yes, We’re Talking About The Bear Market
September was a horrible month for the stock market, but now is not the time to be selling stocks. We believe a market bottom is close at hand, and this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section presents several of our “big picture”, historical market studies to provide support for this belief.
What If We Don't Bottom Around Median Levels?
While we continue to believe in our market bottoming thesis, we thought it may be useful to examine those periods when the P/E ratios continued to fall to the 10x to 12x earnings levels.
A New "Internal" Low In Stocks: Implications
Price momentum now indicating there may still be one more leg down in this bear market. Typically, price lows come after momentum lows, and a new momentum low was hit in mid-July. Similar analysis of NYSE New Highs/New Lows data supports this conclusion.
Major Trend Fades To Neutral During June Massacre
Well, now it’s officially a bear market. But readers should realize that since bear markets typically decline 28%, the bear is likely at least two-thirds over.
Major Trend Goes Positive....No Need To "Sell In May"
The statistical tendencies of seasonal patterns just haven’t proved persistent (or logical) enough for us to build them into our Major Trend Index. Can it be a bear market if the major indices do not decline more than 20%? Putting a nail in the coffin of the decoupling theorists.
Major Trend Edges Up To Neutral In April
Major Trend Index improved to Neutral in early April and clinging there now. Are we seeing a delayed bear market rally? Examining what could come next.
Current Stock Market Strategy
Market has so far performed pretty much as expected. Major Trend still Negative, but recent improvement is surprising. Bear market could be winding down.
Bear Market Bottom This Summer?
What follows is my attempt to accentuate the positive; why the current bear market may be maturing and bottoming out sooner than you might think.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
