Articles by Phil Segner Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager
Estimating the Downside - January 2018
This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.
Estimating the Downside - December 2017
This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.
Additional Factors
The eighth consecutive month of gains for the S&P 500 was made possible by some unlikely heroes.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
With a late-month surge in Financials and slump in Tech, our Royal Blue Low P/E Tier turned in its best monthly performance of 2017, and beat the High P/E Tier for only the third time this year.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
After some turbulence early this year, our Ratio of Ratios seems to have found a comfortable spot. This is the third consecutive month with a 4% premium for Small Caps.
Earnings Momentum
Our Up/Down Ratio sports a “two-month” reading of 1.43—the lowest level of 2017. All is not lost—we’ve seen decent aggregate earnings growth in 2017 despite below average Up/Down figures.
Estimating the Downside - November 2017
This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.
Additional Factors
The S&P 500, showing little concern for valuations or the political climate, had its best month of performance since February.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
Growth stocks more than made up ground lost to Value in September. Dividing stocks by market cap, Growth segments are leading Value by spreads of 10-15% YTD.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
This is the first time this year we’ve spent two consecutive months above the long-term median Small Cap premium of 3%.
Earnings Momentum
The Up/Down Ratio sports a lofty reading of 2.08—the best “one-month” measurement since January of 2015. We’ve seen this movie before—strong initial readings have fallen apart in each of the last four quarters.
Additional Factors
Thumbing its nose at the laws of thermodynamics, the S&P 500 notched its eighth consecutive quarterly gain. Over these two years, the index is up 37%.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
Outperformance in Financial and Energy stocks helped Value find its legs in September. For Q3, however, Growth still beat Value in all three segments.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
On the back of robust Small Cap performance, our Ratio of Ratios spiked through both the Small Cap discount zone and the long-term median premium.
Earnings Momentum
The Up/Down Ratio sports a final reading of 1.44. The soft earnings comparison window, running from Q1 2015 to Q2 2016, is no more.
Estimating the Downside - October 2017
This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels. The valuation comparisons in the detailed tables consider all inflation periods since 1957.
Estimating the Downside - September 2017
This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.
Additional Factors
Like a hard-partying college student with a term paper due, the S&P 500 crammed in five positive sessions to end August—just enough to extend its monthly win streak to five. Weakness in the Equal Weighted Average, and awful performance in the lower quintiles, took all the shine off this victory.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
Growth stocks outperformed for the seventh time out of the eight months of 2017. Small Cap Value, the biggest winner of 2016, has fallen back into negative territory YTD.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
Small Caps are now selling at a 1% valuation discount to Large Caps. Underperformance from Small Caps have kept their valuations in check.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
March 2026 Issue
