Articles by Phil Segner Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

We start 2017 with a robust reading of 1.91. With the painful memory of last quarter’s fast start and terrible finish still fresh in mind, we won’t be celebrating prematurely.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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Not a lot of month-over-month action for the S&P 500. But, on March 21st, the index finished down 1.24% putting an end to a run of 110 trading days without a decline greater than 1%—the longest such stretch in 22 years.

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Our Ratio of Ratios has bounced between premium and discount for Small Cap stocks the last few months. Keep in mind that both the S&P 500 and the S&P 600 made new multi-year LTM P/E ratio highs in March.

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The Up/Down Ratio sports a final “three-month” reading of 1.33 for Q4. The steady progress seen throughout 2016 came to a halt with the last two months of Q4 results—a disappointment, indeed.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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The S&P 500 had a very relaxing and enjoyable February in the Keys. Aside from a regrettable lower-back tattoo, the index basked in a combination of easy gains, virtually no significant down days, and historically low volatility.

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Large Cap Growth is now the best performing segment YTD. After a red-hot 2016, Small Cap Value has gone nowhere in 2017.

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After a 2016 year-end spike, our Ratio of Ratios has settled down below its 3% long-term median premium. Large Caps have experienced additional numerator expansion in 2017, with the S&P 500 up 6% versus the Russell 2000 2.3% gain.

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Looking back at January’s robust “one-month” figure (2.07), the current result is disappointing. It was towering 13% above the long-term “one-month” average in January and now sits looking up at the historical “two-month” mean.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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As we get further into the era of Trump, it will be interesting to see how the market balances anti-immigration and anti-free trade policies with deregulation and tax reform.

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Growth stocks scored a modest win over Value in January. This broke impressive streaks of Value domination—Growth’s last win in the Mid Cap space was last June.

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After spiking higher in December, our Ratio of Ratios settled closer to its long-term average in January (thanks, in part, to relative underperformance in the Small Cap space).

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Building on the momentum of the past few quarters, our “one-month” Q4 ratio sits comfortably above its historical mean for the first time in seven quarters.

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The S&P 500 gained 1.9% in January. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside compared to its historical average remained the same as last month’s reading (-21%).

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CPI figures for December matched consensus estimates.  The Federal Reserve should be pleased to see the modest uptrend in prices.  Sustained price inflation still faces a number headwinds including: resource slack, a strong Dollar and a weakening Yuan. Energy prices saw the largest gains in 2016 after a brutal 2015. Within the Core CPI, medical care experienced notable gains.

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It seems like it’s been ages since investors have been able to get excited about earnings growth, although our October 21st “Chart of the Week” showed that the S&P 500’s current earnings slump has been unremarkable in both depth and duration.

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Let’s think back to February of 2016. Oil was in the high $20’s, people were grappling with the concept of negative interest rates, and banks, especially in Europe, seemed vulnerable once again. Energy, Financials, and Industrials stocks turned a scary start into a respectable year.

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Value stocks reversed long established underperformance to Growth in 2016. However, valuations for these “Value” stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves.

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