Stock Market Internals Earnings Momentum, Small/Mid/Large Caps, Growth/Value/Cyclicals, and Additional Factors

Growth stocks are now all above their historical average valuation levels. Value stocks are all solidly overvalued compared to their recorded averages.

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The Cap Weighted S&P 500 (+4.5%) slightly outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weighted (+4.2%) during October. YTD, the spread between these two indices remains wide, with the Equal Weighted index outperforming by 4.2%.

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On a YTD basis, the spread between these two indices continues to expand, with the Equal Weighted index now outperforming by more than 4%.  Consumer Staples is the most expensive sector among Large and Mid Caps, while Health Care is most expensive in Small Caps.

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All three cap tiers of Growth also now ahead for the YTD. Growth stocks are moving towards their his- torical average valuation levels, with Mid Cap Growth now being overvalued. All Value stock segments continue to be solidly overvalued.

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With all three months of Q2 earnings reports in, the 1.28 ratio is much stronger than Q1, but remains below the 1.51 historical average ratio.

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With two months of Q2 earnings reports in, results have continued trending downward with a reading of 1.27.

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Large Cap result this month is the same as last month, but remains stronger than Q1. Smaller firms reversed course, as Mid, Small, and Micro Caps all rebounded with large sales momentum increases.

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EPS growth for Large and Mid Cap companies continues exceeding their top-line growth, but Small and Micro Cap companies saw their EPS growth rates coming in below their top-line growth rates.

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Small Caps are selling at a 15% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. This is the same as the past two months’ readings. Using estimated 2013 operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a higher valuation premium of 23% (24% last month).

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Large Caps lost 2.9% (total return) in August, just ahead of Small Caps (-3.2%) and Mid Caps (-3.8%). YTD, Small Caps continue to perform ahead of the other two subsets.

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Growth’s leadership over Value has only been apparent in Large Caps, but this segment had a big short-term reversal in recent months. Large Cap Cyclicals (+7%) significantly lag Large Cap Growth (+17%) YTD.

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The Equal Weighted S&P 500 (-3.0%) slightly outperformed the Cap Weighted S&P 500 (-3.1%). The Equal Weighted index continues outperforming YTD (+17.7% vs. +14.5%).

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Financials (the largest Mid and Small Cap sector) decreased across all three market segments, while Information Technology (the largest Large Cap sector) was boosted for both Large and Small Caps.

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The first month of Q2 reports looks better than feared with a reading of 1.59. This is below the average of 1.81, but given this earnings season’s low expectations, investors should breathe a sigh of relief.

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Q2 relative to Q1 growth rates have improved for larger cap companies but deteriorated for the smaller firms.

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Year-over-year EPS growth rate for companies with Q2 reports (with about 65% in) currently stands at +4.2%, while revenue growth has come in at a better than expected +2.6%.

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Small Caps are selling at a 15% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. This is the same as last month’s reading. Using estimated 2013 operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a higher valuation premium of 24% (25% last month).

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Large Caps gained 5.1% (total return) in July, lagging Small Caps (+7.0%) and Mid Caps (+6.2%). YTD, Small Caps are now ahead of the other two subsets, and Large Caps are the laggards.

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