Of Special Interest ...examining a significantly timely topic

A number of years ago The Leuthold Group developed an analytical tool we call the Royal Blue Index.

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Only one of the screens that follow has economic sector commonality (Consumer High Growth).

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This is an index developed in the summer of 1985 made up of U.S. stocks potentially most subject to South African divestiture selling pressure. It includes companies given bad Sullivan ratings and those who have not become signatories. A.D. Little released new Sullivan ratings Nov. 1 and there have been a number of changes.

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Examining five of our Early Warning inflation analytical tools, we currently find little if any indications of an inflation resurgence. In a strong economy, inflation could run to 7% next year, but the serious inflation danger lies down the road.

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New Jersey’s recent legislation requiring state pension fund divestiture of South African connected stocks may be a landmark. We have compiled a list of 73 stocks that may well be the primary targets for additional divestiture selling by other funds, our Divestiture Hit List.

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Have you ever looked at a gold price chart denominated in Swiss Francs or Deutsche Marks? It is a much different picture than gold in dollars. Perhaps the U.S. perspective is warped.

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Regardless of the recent reported upticks in the GNP Deflator and CPI, our Early Warning Inflation work provides little if any evidence that inflation is beginning to accelerate. Five of our inflation analytical tools are presented and discussed, along with the risks of Deflation.

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How do you make a stock market play on the declining dollar? This is not as simple as it may first appear. Three approaches are discussed, concluding the best approach might be buying selected major U.S. exporters.

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Drug stocks a play on the weak dollar?...perhaps not as good a play as most think. Herein we compare the market performance of drug stocks with the dollar from 1975 to date.

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Our initial May 1984 move into these “Gilt Edged Growth Stocks” has not really been paying off. Herein we re-examine this sector of the market in an effort to determine what is wrong. We did much the same thing a few months ago, concluding these stocks should be good relative performers in 1985. Now we are not so sure and have a “hold” on increasing these holdings.

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This issue’s X-Rays and EKGs section takes a hard look at these classy institutional favorites. The conclusion is that 1985 looks like a pretty good year for vintage Growth Stocks, relative to the rest of the market.

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Examining our early warning inflation tools, we currently find few indications of an inflation resurgence. Only the CPI momentum work is somewhat disturbing. Herein we review this work, and also discuss the inflation outlook for 1985. In a strong economy, inflation could run to 7% next year, but the serious inflation danger lies down the road.

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For several years now, this publication’s focus has been on long 20-year bonds, while many clients owning bonds maintain average 6-7 year maturities. Herein, we compare future performance of long and short bonds over several time horizons in a variety of projected interest rate environments, including projected parity levels for the stock market.

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A month by month listing of both conceptual and conventional model portfolio sector holdings, January 1982 to date.

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At this point there is no indication inflation may be about to accelerate. Some may recall that in the early spring of 1984, this work led us to conclude that 1984 inflation might be a lot lower than most then thought at the time. This section also includes comments on the possibilities of deflation and what might be expected if it does occur. It probably would not be the disaster some seem to think.

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Jim Floyd has run new computer screens for the Consumer High Growth sector, Regional Bank Double Plays, The Undervalued & Unloved issues and the Growth Stock Bargain Basket.

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We hear what the politicians say, but how do they vote? Herein, the 1983 voting records on spending issues are tabulated and compared for every U.S. Senator. We then classify the Senators, ranging from “Tough as Nails” to “Totally Irresponsible.” See where your two Senators rank.

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Most of our inflation momentum work has improved significantly in the past month. The big surprise in the last half of 1984 may be that inflation is not going to accelerate. The 7% inflation many seem to be expecting this year end now looks very unlikely to us. The question is, will the bond market believe it?

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Two of our specialized evaluation tools are examined. The Royal Blue Index relative valuation work indicates the higher P/E quality growth issues are now undervalued compared to institutional low P/E favorites. But our Growth Vs. Cyclical timing studies seems to be telling us a major move into these quality growth issues still might be somewhat premature.

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This strategy move was discussed last issue. Here are details, including 63 bank stocks that survived our screens. Also, our initial eight selections. This is damn difficult research, but more is coming soon.

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