Of Special Interest ...examining a significantly timely topic

In the fall of 1988, this publication detailed a very reliable long-term stock market indicator we call VLT momentum. Herein, we present the record tracking back to 1897, employing average monthly prices in the calculation rather than month end prices.

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We apologize for the unanticipated Benchmarks delay. In the meantime, per client requests, here are updated histograms for our primary stock market value benchmarks, including commentary. We are pleased that so many of our clients really do use this work.

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For years we have been searching for better measures of secondary stock activity. When the new Russell 1000, 2000 and 3000 indices were developed we thought our search was over. Despite some criticism of the Russell indices, we still think this index gives the best representation of secondary stock action.

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Self examination can be good for the soul, so each year time is taken to look back over the preceding year or so, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing in this publication. Including the good....and the bad.

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In recent months, a number of you have been asking about technology stocks and the technology sector.

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As promised, in this issue we present the very long-term record of this long-term low risk stock market momentum tool. With a data assist from Bill Doane of Minuteman Financial in Boston, we can now present the record tracking back to 1897.

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In our view, the 1988 payout ratios below 40% do not (and should not) represent the start of a new contracting period in payout ratios. Rather, this current contraction is almost solely the result of the 1988 earnings explosion.

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This technique has an almost perfect record in identifying low risk long term buying points. It doesn’t provide signals very often (only 12 since 1949), but when it does, it pays to pay attention.

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In the August issue, we examined the historical relationship of bond yields and common stock earnings yields, looking at it in terms of a ratio. In this issue, we make the same comparison in terms of a basis point differential.

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This is the third in a series of studies presenting historical relationships between stock market valuations and bond yields. In this issue, we examine the historical relationship of the bond yield and common stock earnings yield in terms of a ratio.

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This is the second of our studies presenting historical relationships between stock market valuations and bond yields. This issue we present the Yield Differential, the basis point difference between stock dividend yields and bond yields.

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No, the move in secondary stocks is not over. However, it is unlikely that the 1988 to date margin of small stock performance superiority will be sustained.

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This is the first of our studies presenting historical relationships between stock market valuations and bond yields. Herein we compare bond yields to common stock dividend yields in terms of a ratio.

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Several years ago, we first published a histogram presenting average annual yields for highest quality U.S. bonds, 1790 to date. However, I wanted to examine historical yield distributions with more precision, presenting average quarterly yields, as well as average annual yields.

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February was a darn good month for secondary stocks. Most of our measures of secondary stock relative momentum broke their 3-4 year downtrends. We are now operating under the assumption that a significant shift in market character has occurred.

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The Brady Commission's study of the October Crash was published this last month.

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The NASDAQ Index and the Value Line Index outperformed the DJIA in January and about matched S&P 500 performance.

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  In this business, it is often best to conveniently forget what was said in the past.

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Some of our clients are taking a pledge to never again buy secondary stocks, especially OTC issues. We urge you not to take this same pledge. Since mid-1983 secondary stocks have lagged badly, but this is not typical.

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