Macro Monitor

Strong mutual fund inflows in January helped propel High Yield bond returns up 7% for the month. Yield spreads narrowed significantly relative to Quality Corporates but remain very attractive.

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U.S economy weakening faster than expected: Global economy also slowing. Increasing odds of a hard landing in 2001.

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Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect some energy related flair-ups.

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U.S. economy losing momentum, global economy slowing more…..Increasing odds of recession in 2001, as banks tighten credit, energy costs remain high, and technology falters.

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U.S. economy still has considerable momentum, but see signs of a slowdown ahead...Increasing odds of a recession in 2001, as banks tighten credit, energy costs remain high, and technology stocks falter.

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The U.S. economy still has considerable momentum, but there are now more signs of a slowdown ahead. Global economy is slowing down even more.

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Economy still has considerable momentum, but there are signs of a slowdown in the second half. Still expect further Fed tightening. Expect inflation rates of change to soon peak, then cool off in Q4.

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· Still expect one more rate hike due to rekindling of stock market enthusiasm, prospects of accelerating inflation, and reported wage inflation numbers understated.

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Despite weaker economic news, still expect Fed to bump rates up at least once more.

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Further Fed tightening to come…..Next few month inflation news likely to be scary.

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Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends make further Fed tightening almost a certainty.

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Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends make further Fed tightening almost a certainty.

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Yield curve inversion reflects supply/demand dynamics, expectations of further Fed tightening and unwinding of short strategies by speculators.

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Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends  make further Fed tightening likely.

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Rising equity prices, strong economic news, and inflation trends  make further Fed tightening likely (next year).

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Rising stocks and still good economic news make third Fed boost likely.

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Rising stocks and better economic news could increase chance of third Fed boost near term.

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Two recent bump-up’s in rates by Fed may not be enough.

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Last month’s 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely.

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Recent 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely but T-bonds now look to be in the high end of a buying zone.

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