Macro Monitor

Bond market looks attractive on 6-12 month basis. Economic expansion long in the tooth, but still surprisingly strong...Fed may tighten next time to slow down economy. Inflation cool, but wage pressures a worry.

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Economic expansion long in the tooth...Fed working to slow down the economy...Inflation cool...U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields...strong dollar should continue to stimulate foreign bond buying.

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Economic expansion long in the tooth...Fed working to slow down the economy...Inflation cool...U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields...strong dollar should continue to stimulate foreign bond buying.

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Bond rally should be rekindled by mid-year. U.S. yields remain relatively high compared to foreign yields. Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months.

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Further bond market weakness will be used as opportunity to boost T-bonds (Conventional Portfolio) and T-bond zeros (Unconventional Portfolio).

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No fixed income changes planned for January.  Significant bond market weakness would be viewed as opportunity to accumulate (7% area).

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Bond rally has further to go in 1997 (6% or lower) if nervous equity investors seek safer havens, economy slows, and foreign appetite for U.S. Fixed Income remains. U.S. yields remain relatively high.

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Bonds outperformed stocks over past two months. Most investors not well positioned to take advantage of an extended period of bond’s performance superiority. As inflation threat recedes and economy slows, bonds should continue to outperform.

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Bonds (including zeros) expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months. Economy should slow by year end (recession in 1997?). Inflation should remain under control.

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Bonds (including zeros) expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow by year end, inflation should remain under control, corporate earnings momentum expected to gradually fade.

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Bonds rallied in early August on tepid employment and inflation reports, lower deficit news, and (surprise) welfare legislation. This bond market rally looks like it could get legs.

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Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow, inflation should remain under control, and corporate earnings momentum should gradually fade.

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Looking out ten years, can today’s overvalued stock market outperform 7% Treasury zeros?

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Bond market decline slowed in May. But positive economy news, potential Fed tightening (not likely near-term), and labor inflation still disturb bond market investors.

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Bond market retreated in April and early May as Q1 GDP came in well ahead of estimates, raising expectations that the Fed will tighten rather than ease. Longer term, yields could move toward 5%, if confidence in U.S. dollar is rebuilt via fiscal reform.

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Bond market was punished again in March by continued (forced?) hedge fund selling and unexpected stronger economic signals casting doubts on further Fed easing. Rising labor costs and higher energy and grain prices provided reasons for worry.

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Insight derived from Jim Bianco’s excellent Market Commentaries. At Arbor Trading Group Inc., Jim does some of the best, original, and thought provoking work that comes into our shop.

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Bond market was pummeled in February by weaker dollar, aggressive hedge fund selling, and Mr. Greenspan’s positive economic comments which cast doubts on further significant Fed easing.

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Bond market rally stalled out in January...concern over the recent spike in gold prices, political uncertainty, and upcoming treasury auction, seemed to outweigh the weak economic news. Bonds seem over-extended on a short term basis.

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Bond market rally continued in December. Government shutdown curtailed information flow, but economy still looks lame and inflation tame. Investors forced to focus on Washington's political farce.

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