Macro Monitor

Economy Humming Along...Fed Not Done Yet...Inflation Still Number One Worry

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but rally seems underway.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve is flattening out.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve looks like it may be flattening out.

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Streisand concert tickets got more bids than treasuries in late March and the first day of April. It was a painful period for both bond and stock investors.

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At this point, the bond market outlook is still viewed as negative, it was also negative last month. The upside seems minimal over the next 6-12 months.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative for bond market.

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Weight of the evidence now mildly negative on bond market.

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The late October bond market retreat spilled over into November, as nervous investors continued to be bombarded with better than expected economic reports.

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Bond market bulls experienced a brief chill in mid-October. After starting the month on a strong note, most bond categories retreated for the remainder of the month as better economic news began to trickle in.

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Almost all bond sectors were unchanged or up very slightly in September. The month started out strongly following weak economic news and a declining PPI. However, a higher than expected CPI, turmoil in Mother Russia, a “pop” in oil prices and even some positive economic reports pushed most bond prices lower as the month progressed.

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The bond market's wish list was fulfilled in August. Inflation readings came in below expectations, economic signals continued to point towards sluggish growth and signs of deficit reduction progress surfaced once again.

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Long treasuries moved higher during the first half of July buoyed by favorable June inflation numbers and generally weak economic signals. However, most bond prices did an about face in the middle of the month.

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Yields remained in a narrow trading band in early June, as investors braced themselves for another volley of ominous PPI and CPI announcements. But, upon release of May's surprisingly good inflation numbers, the bond market began a steady march upward for most of the remainder of the month.

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Shorter-term treasuries finished May on a weak note, reflecting concerns over possible tightening by the Fed. Long treasuries were nearly unchanged for the month, realizing a slight gain, as the President's deficit reduction plan cleared its first hurdle.

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With today's interest rates at the lowest levels in more than two decades, the “Real” Interest Rate Theory is being used as a bullish argument asserting rates may move lower. Although this may be the case, we feel it timely to print Steve's outline highlighting the problems associated with this concept.

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