Macro Monitor
Bond Market Summary
“Risk-free bond returns could become return-free risks.” The Leuthold Group has hedged its fixed income position by shorting U.S. Treasuries. May completely hedge entire fixed income exposure later this month.
Bond Market Summary
Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom. But are lower rates really necessary to boost business spending?
Bond Market Summary
Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries, if necessary to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom, but will it be the catalyst to boost business spending/borrowing? We think not.
Bond Market Summary
New bond market timing tool discovered. Testing reveals it has a remarkable forecasting record. Currently signaling bond market top!
Bond Market Summary
The grand 20+ year secular bull market in bonds is probably topping out.
High Yield Bond Opportunity: Yield Spreads Widen, Opportunity Remains
We believe High Yield bonds remain attractive. The economy is improving and corporate profits are rebounding from depressed levels.
Bond Market Summary
The spread between Long Quality Corporates and twenty year Treasury bonds at the pinnacle is back down to a more normal range, as the Treasury shortage elimination-thesis has fallen apart due to rising budget deficits.
Bond Market Summary
We believe it is still an opportune time to add to High Yield positions. The economy is improving and corporate profits are rebounding from depressed levels.
Bond Market Summary
High Yield bond only fixed income area strongly appealing to us, currently.
Bond Market Summary
We believe it is an opportune time to add to High Yield positions. The economy is improving and corporate profits are rebounding from depressed levels.
Inflation Update: CPI Should Finish 2002 Up 3%
While this higher reading is still far from signaling a significant inflation increase, we do believe that mild upward pressures are building.
Bond Market Summary
Huge secular bull market in bonds (emerging in 1981) is topping out.
Inflation Update...The Diffusion Index
While the higher Commodity Diffusion Index reading is still far from signaling a significant inflation increase, we do believe that mild upward pressures are building.
Bond Market Summary
Huge secular bull market in bonds (emerging in 1981) is topping out.
Bond Market Summary
Expect CPI and PPI to both edge higher in second half of year...could be negative surprise, but not something big.
Bond Market Summary
Expect CPI and PPI to both edge higher in second half of year...could be negative surprise, but not the start of something big.
Bond Market Summary
Expect CPI and PPI to both edge higher in second half of year...could be negative surprise, but not the start of something big.
Bond Market Summary
Near term, bond market may continue to rally as economic reports have become more mixed (less bullish). But long term secular bull market in bonds emerging in 1981 has probably topped out.
Bond Market Summary
Expect rally from current oversold conditions, but overall, we think secular Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.
Bond Market Summary
Rally due in Q1 2002, but we think Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.
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