Macro Monitor
Economic Outlook
It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening, and consumer spending a big question mark.
Economic Outlook
Continue to project higher interest rates over the next six months, particularly longer maturities. Further Fed action will be more “data driven”.
Economic Outlook
Continue to project higher interest rates over the next six months, particularly longer maturities. After rate hike in May, Fed’s actions will be more “data driven”.
Economic Outlook
Based on our 6-12 month yield targets, short end of the yield curve looking more attractive.
Economic Outlook
It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening and consumer spending a big question mark.
Economic Outlook
It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening and consumer spending being a big question mark.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion is considered late stage.
Today's Yield Curve Inversion May Not Be Particularly Meaningful
Many economic recessions are preceded by inverted yield curves, but not all. There have been several inversions that have not immediately preceded a recession.
Economic Outlook
Still view long rates as potentially vulnerable to strong economy and unexpected inflation.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. Boosting bond market target yields based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. CPI inflation could continue to surprise on the upside; the economy never did hit a soft patch; and Fed may still make several more rate hikes.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. From today’s low interest rate levels, there is not much upside, but downside is significant!
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. May deficit report encouraging.
Have Falling Long Term Rates Ever Contributed To A Flattening Yield Curve Before?
Jim Floyd looks at the history of flattening yield curves. It is very rare for short rates to be rising with long rates coming down, which is what we are seeing in the current environment.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion will reach four years on 9/30/2005. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.
Economic Outlook
Today, the yield curve has flattened but has not yet inverted. The economy may be in for a soft patch, but there are no signs of recession yet.
Economic Outlook
The U.S. deficit was not a bond market negative in 2004, but continuing long term deficits will become a negative.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Recession could possibly be getting underway by end of 2005.
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