Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Technical types who have the luxury of avoiding the worsening valuation, inflation, and liquidity backdrop probably view today’s market as a much “safer” one than has existed for many months, now that breadth and leadership cracks have been mostly sealed up. 

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It is much easier to predict inflation, itself, than to predict when investors will become traumatized by it. Some of the most helpful measures for the latter task come from the ISM Manufacturing Report. October’s readings saw three key measures above the statistical “speed limits” we calculated years ago.

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The environment where massively above-trend federal outlays have generated massively above-trend readings in both current and projected S&P 500 EPS, the idea of normalizing EPS over a period as long as five years might seem hopelessly out of touch. But it’s during times of extraordinary conditions—both good and bad—that render this work especially valuable.

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For those believers in a new economic- and stock-market era, there’s good news. The CPI-PPI spread has not been an effective proxy for profit margins during the 1995-to-date “New Era.” But, the failure of an inflation measure during a mostly non-inflationary era shouldn’t come as a surprise.

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October’s nearly +7% S&P 500 surge was impressive, but came a month early—according to the traditional seasonal cycle—which turned bullish on November 1st, and will remain intact for the next six months.

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In the June 2018 Green Book, we noted that stocks have shown a fairly reliable correlation with a calendar of an entirely different sort: the solunar calendar. It turns out that the days that our $9.95 “iSolunar” iPhone app predicts to be good ones for fishing (based entirely on phases of the moon) are the same days that stocks have enjoyed the largest average gains!   

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What if the S&P 500’s September 2nd closing high were to miraculously stand as the cycle’s high-water mark? If it did, the peak was presaged—in retrospect—by two Federal Reserve Bank presidents who rode the liquidity wave all the way to its crest after assuring the floodgates would be left wide open. Both resigned in September. 

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Massive gains in stock market wealth have undoubtedly been a contributor to inflation, yet few analyses of the inflation picture even mention the stock market—other than to predict it will soar when inflation proves transitory.

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The MTI’s move to its Negative zone with the October 1st reading was driven by a few trend breakdowns—ones that could well reverse in short order. Recognizing the volatility of these signals (and perhaps having been “conditioned” by the one-way market of the last 18 months), we opted for just a minor asset allocation adjustment.

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The post-COVID surge in the NASDAQ 100 has been a perfect match in terms of duration with the one following the crisis afflicting Russian debt (and the LTCM debacle) in the fall of 1998. Incredibly, both of these historic market moves lasted 369 trading—but that’s where the resemblance ends.

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Notwithstanding the hit to consumers’ pocketbooks, it’s been amusing to follow the Fed’s recent evolution with its mindset regarding inflation. A year ago, the hope was for “symmetry”—Fed-speak for allowing inflation to run above its long-time 2% target, since it had previously undercut that level for awhile. Then, early in 2021, the word “transitory” entered the lexicon; yet months of debate and tens of thousands of utterances on financial television have clarified nothing about the Fed’s characterization of that term.

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In a recent “Chart of the Week,” we discussed the late-cycle “inversion” in Consumer Confidence, where consumers’ views of their “Present Situation” have jumped far above their “Expectations.” That’s the reverse of what’s typical in the first couple years of an economic expansion.

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Compare the U.S. monetary response in early 2020 to China’s: The Fed quadrupled the M2 growth rate (from 6% to 24%) in three months, while China merely bumped M2 growth from 8% to 11%. This relative policy restraint leaves China in a better position to handle potential fallout than if it had gone “all in” like the U.S.  

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The COVID rescue plan has generated a multi-trillion-dollar deluge of federal spending that has trickled down to government transfer payments, personal incomes, retail sales, and surging EPS. When considering all of these data series in relation to their long-term trends, it’s truly remarkable that the only item analysts consider to be “transitory” is inflation.

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Consumer Price Inflation has stabilized in the 5.2–5.4% range in the last two months, giving the Fed hope that it’s reached a near-term peak. Still, the presence of 5%-plus inflation in the face of ZIRP leaves the real short-term Treasury-bill rate about as deeply negative as it has ever been.

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Analysts at Standard & Poor’s will soon confirm what’s been known for several months: The earnings downturn associated with the COVID recession was the shallowest and shortest of any recession-related EPS decline.

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A stronger U.S. dollar is “supposed” to be bearish for commodities, but it’s been a banner year for most commodities with gold among the few that are down on the year. However, keep in mind that gold tends to be a harbinger of major moves in industrial commodities, with a lead time of about six months—and its year-over-year change is now negative.

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It seems investors care mostly that the authorities have fiercely defended the S&P 500’s status as the World’s Reserve Index^TM. A decade of QE should have taught us that when the Fed conducts a decade’s worth of QE in little more than a year, U.S. Large Cap stocks benefit the most. 

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The market’s August push was enough to lift four of the seven lagging bellwethers to new cycle highs. Among the three remaining laggards, only the Dow Jones Transports is still significantly below its high.

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It’s been a heck of a stock market year, and there are still four months left. What else could go right? Monetary conditions, for one thing—at least as proxied by our Dow Bond Oscillator (DBO).

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