Estimating The Downside

The S&P 500 lost 0.4% (price only) in February.

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The S&P Industrials’ downside to mean valuation (excludes Utilities and Financials) is 24%, about 3% less than last month’s reading.

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The S&P 500 lost 1.8% (price only) in December. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average decreased by about 2% from last month’s –19% reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 0.1% (price only) in November. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average increased by about 1% from last month’s –18% reading.

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The S&P 500 fell 6.3% (price only) in August. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, downside to its historical average decreased by about 4% from last month’s –19% reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 0.9% (price only) in April. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, downside to its historical average widened by about 1% from last month’s –18% reading.

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The S&P 500 lost 1.7% (price only) in March. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, downside to its historical average decreased by about 1% from last month’s reading of –19%.

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The S&P 500 gained 5.5% (price only) in February. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, downside to its historical average widened by about 5% from the prior month’s reading of –14%.

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The S&P 500 lost 3.1% (price only) in January. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, downside to its historical average decreased by about 1% from last month’s reading of –15%.

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The S&P 500 lost 0.4% (price only) in December. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, downside to its historical average decreased by about 1% from last month’s reading of –16%.

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The S&P 500 gained 2.5% (price only) in November.

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The S&P 500 gained 2.3% (price only) in October. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, downside to its historical average remains at 14%.

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The S&P 500 lost 1.6% (price only) in September. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, downside to its historical average narrowed to 14%, about 2% less than last month’s reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 3.8% (price only) in August.

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The S&P 500 lost 1.5% (price only) in July.

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The S&P 500 gained 1.9% (price only) in June. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, downside to its historical average is -14%, about 1% more than last month’s reading. The S&P Industrials’ downside to mean valuation (excludes Utilities and Financials) also increased slightly to -27%.

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The S&P 500 gained 2.1% (price only) in May. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, downside to its historical average is -13%, about 1% more than last month’s reading. The S&P Industrials downside to mean valuation (excludes Utilities and Financials) also increased slightly to -26%.

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The S&P 500 gained 0.6% (price only) in April. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, downside to its historical average remains at 12%. The S&P Industrials (which excludes Utilities and Financials) is also unchanged at 25% downside to reach mean valuation.

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